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Author Chang, M.; Liu, B.; Wang, B.; Martinez-Villalobos, C.; Ren, G.; Zhou, T. doi  openurl
  Title Understanding future increases in precipitation extremes in global land monsoon regions Type
  Year 2022 Publication Journal of Climate Abbreviated Journal J. Clim.  
  Volume 35 Issue Pages 1839-1851  
  Keywords Precipitation; Extreme events; Monsoons; Climate prediction; Thermodynamics; Dynamics  
  Abstract This study investigates future changes in daily precipitation extremes and the involved physics over the global land monsoon (GM) region using climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The daily precipitation extreme is identified by the cutoff scale, measuring the extreme tail of the precipitation distribution. Compared to the historical period, multi-model results reveal a continuous increase in precipitation extremes under four scenarios, with a progressively higher fraction of precipitation exceeding the historical cutoff scale when moving into the future. The rise of the cutoff-scale by the end of the century is reduced by 57.8% in the moderate emission scenario relative to the highest scenario, underscoring the social benefit in reducing emissions. The cutoff scale sensitivity, defined by the increasing rates of the cutoff scale over the GM region to the global mean surface temperature increase, is nearly independent of the projected periods and emission scenarios, roughly 8.0% K−1 by averaging all periods and scenarios. To understand the cause of the changes, we applied a physical scaling diagnostic to decompose them into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. We find that thermodynamics and dynamics have comparable contributions to the intensified precipitation extremes in the GM region. Changes in thermodynamic scaling contribute to a spatially uniform increase pattern, while changes in dynamic scaling dominate the regional differences in the increased precipitation extremes. Furthermore, the large inter-model spread of the projection is primarily attributed to variations of dynamic scaling among models.  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0894-8755 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved  
  Call Number (up) UAI @ alexi.delcanto @ Serial 1500  
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Author Zhang, S.H.; Chen, YRX.; Luo, Y.L.; Liu, B.; Ren, G.Y.; Zhou, T.J.; Martinez-Villalobos, C.; Chang, M.Y. doi  openurl
  Title Revealing the Circulation Pattern Most Conducive to Precipitation Extremes in Henan Province of North China Type
  Year 2022 Publication Geophysical Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Geophys. Res. Lett.  
  Volume 49 Issue 7 Pages e2022GL098034  
  Keywords SUMMER MONSOON  
  Abstract Two catastrophic extreme precipitation events in July 2021 and August 1975 caused tremendous damages and deaths in Henan, one of the most populated provinces in China. Revealing the relationship between large-scale circulation patterns and precipitation extremes is vital for understanding the physical mechanisms and providing potential value for improving prediction and hence reducing impacts. Here, nine large-scale circulation patterns are identified for July-August using the self-organizing map. We find daily precipitation extremes under the fifth pattern (P5), characterized with the strongest easterly wind anomalies in Henan, feature the highest frequency and the largest intensity. Seven out of total 11 days in the two catastrophic extreme precipitation events belong to P5, and the top two maximum hourly precipitation extremes over continental China occurred under P5. The larger intensity of precipitation extremes is attributed to the dynamical contribution, suggesting more-intense precipitation extremes under P5 are largely dominated by stronger ascending motions.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0094-8276 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes WOS:000778759800001 Approved  
  Call Number (up) UAI @ alexi.delcanto @ Serial 1561  
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Author Chen, Y.; Bo Liu, B.; Luo, Y.; Martinez-Villalobos, C.; Guoyu Ren, G.; Huang, Y.; Zhang, S.; Sun, Y.; Zhang, Z doi  openurl
  Title Relative Contribution of Moisture Transport during TC-Active and TC-Inactive Periods to the Precipitation in Henan Province of North China: Mean State and an Extreme Event Type
  Year 2023 Publication Journal of Climate Abbreviated Journal J. Clim.  
  Volume 36 Issue 11 Pages 3611-3623  
  Keywords  
  Abstract A Lagrangian model—the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT)—is used to quantify changes in moisture sources and paths for precipitation over North China’s Henan Province associated with tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during July–August of 1979–2021. During TC-active periods, an anomalous cyclone over the WNP enhances southeasterly and reduces southwesterly moisture transport to Henan. Accordingly, compared to TC-inactive periods, moisture contributions from the Pacific Ocean (PO), eastern China (EC), and the local area (Local) are significantly enhanced by 48.32% (16.73% versus 11.28%), 20.42% (9.44% versus 7.84%), and 2.89% (4.91% versus 4.77%), respectively, while moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean (IO), Southwestern China (SWC), Eurasia (EA), and the South China Sea (SCS) are significantly reduced by −31.90% (8.61% versus 12.64%), −16.27% (4.60% versus 5.50%), −8.81% (19.10% versus 20.95%), and −6.92% (12.18% versus 13.09%). Furthermore, the moisture transport for a catastrophic extreme rainfall event during 17–22 July (“21⋅7” event) influenced by Typhoon Infa is investigated. Compared to the mean state during TC-active periods, the moisture contribution from the PO was substantially increased by 126.32% (37.87% versus 16.73%), while that from IO significantly decreased by −98.26% (0.15% versus 8.61%) during the “21⋅7” event. Analyses with a bootstrap resampling method show that moisture contributions from the PO fall outside the +6σ range, for both the TC-active and TC-inactive probability distributions. Thus, the “21⋅7” event is rare and extreme in terms of the moisture contribution from the PO, with the occurrence probability being less than 1 in 1 million times.

Significance Statement

Henan, one of the most populated provinces in China, experienced a catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 (the “21⋅7” event), coinciding with the activity of a tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific, which helps establish the moisture channel. Using a Lagrangian model, we provide a better understanding of how moisture transport changes associated with TC for the mean state of 1979–2021, and reveal how extreme is the moisture transport for the “21⋅7” event with the bootstrap technique. It is found that during active TC periods, the moisture contribution from the Pacific Ocean (the Indian Ocean) is significantly enhanced (reduced). For every 1 000 000 six-day events, less than one instance like the “21⋅7” event should be expected.
 
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0894-8755 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved  
  Call Number (up) UAI @ alexi.delcanto @ Serial 1784  
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