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Author Fustos-Toribio, I.; Manque-Roa, N.; Vasquez Antipan, D.; Hermosilla Sotomayor, M.; Gonzalez, V.L.
Title Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes Type
Year 2022 Publication Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Abbreviated Journal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Volume 22 Issue 6 Pages 2169-2183
Keywords FLOWS-TRIGGERING RAINFALL; BIAS CORRECTION; DEBRIS; IDENTIFICATION; THRESHOLDS; UNCERTAINTY; PRECIPITATION; PERFORMANCE; SIMULATION; IMPACT
Abstract Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) are an issue in the southern Andes nowadays. RILs cause loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. Rainfall-induced landslide early warning systems (RILEWSs) can reduce and mitigate economic and social damages related to RIL events. The southern Andes do not have an operational-scale RILEWS yet. In this contribution, we present a pre-operational RILEWS based on the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model and geomorphological features coupled to logistic models in the southern Andes. The models have been forced using precipitation simulations. We correct the precipitation derived from WRF using 12 weather stations through a bias correction approach. The models were trained using 57 well-characterized RILs and validated by ROC analysis. We show that WRF has strong limitations in representing the spatial variability in the precipitation. Therefore, accurate precipitation needs a bias correction in the study zone. We used accurate precipitation simulation and slope, demonstrating a high predicting capacity (area under the curve, AUC, of 0.80). We conclude that our proposal could be suitable at an operational level under determined conditions. A reliable RIL database and operational weather networks that allow real-time correction of the mesoscale model in the implemented zone are needed. The RILEWSs could become a support to decision-makers during extreme-precipitation events related to climate change in the south of the Andes.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1561-8633 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes WOS:000817098000001 Approved
Call Number UAI @ alexi.delcanto @ Serial 1595
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Author Mulders, G.D.; Pascucci, I.; Ciesla, F.J.; Fernandes, R.B.
Title The Mass Budgets and Spatial Scales of Exoplanet Systems and Protoplanetary Disks Type
Year 2021 Publication Astrophysical Journal Abbreviated Journal Astrophys. J.
Volume 920 Issue 2 Pages 66
Keywords MINIMUM-MASS; PLANET OCCURRENCE; DEBRIS DISCS; CLASS-II; NEBULA; STAR; MULTIPLICITY; PROJECT
Abstract Planets are born from disks of gas and dust, and observations of protoplanetary disks are used to constrain the initial conditions of planet formation. However, dust mass measurements of Class II disks with ALMA have called into question whether they contain enough solids to build the exoplanets that have been detected to date. In this paper, we calculate the mass and spatial scale of solid material around Sun-like stars probed by transit and radial velocity exoplanet surveys and compare those to the observed dust masses and sizes of Class II disks in the same stellar-mass regime. We show that the apparent mass discrepancy disappears when accounting for observational selection and detection biases. We find a discrepancy only when the planet formation efficiency is below 100%, or if there is a population of undetected exoplanets that significantly contributes to the mass in solids. We identify a positive correlation between the masses of planetary systems and their respective orbital periods, which is consistent with the trend between the masses and the outer radii of Class II dust disks. This implies that, despite a factor 100 difference in spatial scale, the properties of protoplanetary disks seem to be imprinted on the exoplanet population.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0004-637X ISBN Medium
Area 0004-637X Expedition Conference
Notes WOS:000707456200001 Approved
Call Number UAI @ alexi.delcanto @ Serial 1475
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