|   | 
Details
   web
Records
Author Fustos-Toribio, I.; Manque-Roa, N.; Vasquez Antipan, D.; Hermosilla Sotomayor, M.; Gonzalez, V.L.
Title Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes Type
Year 2022 Publication Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Abbreviated Journal Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Volume 22 Issue 6 Pages 2169-2183
Keywords FLOWS-TRIGGERING RAINFALL; BIAS CORRECTION; DEBRIS; IDENTIFICATION; THRESHOLDS; UNCERTAINTY; PRECIPITATION; PERFORMANCE; SIMULATION; IMPACT
Abstract Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) are an issue in the southern Andes nowadays. RILs cause loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. Rainfall-induced landslide early warning systems (RILEWSs) can reduce and mitigate economic and social damages related to RIL events. The southern Andes do not have an operational-scale RILEWS yet. In this contribution, we present a pre-operational RILEWS based on the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model and geomorphological features coupled to logistic models in the southern Andes. The models have been forced using precipitation simulations. We correct the precipitation derived from WRF using 12 weather stations through a bias correction approach. The models were trained using 57 well-characterized RILs and validated by ROC analysis. We show that WRF has strong limitations in representing the spatial variability in the precipitation. Therefore, accurate precipitation needs a bias correction in the study zone. We used accurate precipitation simulation and slope, demonstrating a high predicting capacity (area under the curve, AUC, of 0.80). We conclude that our proposal could be suitable at an operational level under determined conditions. A reliable RIL database and operational weather networks that allow real-time correction of the mesoscale model in the implemented zone are needed. The RILEWSs could become a support to decision-makers during extreme-precipitation events related to climate change in the south of the Andes.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1561-8633 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes WOS:000817098000001 Approved
Call Number UAI @ alexi.delcanto @ Serial 1595
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Neelin, J.D.; Martinez-Villalobos, C.; Stechmann, S.N.; Ahmed, F.; Chen, G.; Norris, J.M.; Kuo, Y.H.; Lenderink, G.
Title Precipitation Extremes and Water Vapor Relationships in Current Climate and Implications for Climate Change Type
Year 2022 Publication Current Climate Change Reports Abbreviated Journal Curr. Clim. Change Rep.
Volume 8 Issue 1 Pages 17-33
Keywords Rainfall; Climate change; Deep convection; Extreme events; Precipitation probability; Stochastic model
Abstract Purpose of Review: Review our current understanding of how precipitation is related to its thermodynamic environment, i.e., the water vapor and temperature in the surroundings, and implications for changes in extremes in a warmer climate. Recent Findings: Multiple research threads have i) sought empirical relationships that govern onset of strong convective precipitation, or that might identify how precipitation extremes scale with changes in temperature; ii) examined how such extremes change with water vapor in global and regional climate models under warming scenarios; iii) identified fundamental processes that set the characteristic shapes of precipitation distributions. While water vapor increases tend to be governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship to temperature, precipitation extreme changes are more complex and can increase more rapidly, particularly in the tropics. Progress may be aided by bringing separate research threads together and by casting theory in terms of a full explanation of the precipitation probability distribution.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2198-6061 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes WOS:000768603000001 Approved
Call Number UAI @ alexi.delcanto @ Serial 1560
Permanent link to this record