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Author Cordova-Lepe, F.; Vogt-Geisse, K.
Title Adding a reaction-restoration type transmission rate dynamic-law to the basic SEIR COVID-19 model Type
Year 2022 Publication Plos One Abbreviated Journal PLos One
Volume 17 Issue 6 Pages e0269843
Keywords
Abstract The classical SEIR model, being an autonomous system of differential equations, has important limitations when representing a pandemic situation. Particularly, the geometric unimodal shape of the epidemic curve is not what is generally observed. This work introduces the beta SEIR model, which adds to the classical SEIR model a differential law to model the variation in the transmission rate. It considers two opposite thrives generally found in a population: first, reaction to disease presence that may be linked to mitigation strategies, which tends to decrease transmission, and second, the urge to return to normal conditions that pulls to restore the initial value of the transmission rate. Our results open a wide spectrum of dynamic variabilities in the curve of new infected, which are justified by reaction and restoration thrives that affect disease transmission over time. Some of these dynamics have been observed in the existing COVID-19 disease data. In particular and to further exemplify the potential of the model proposed in this article, we show its capability of capturing the evolution of the number of new confirmed cases of Chile and Italy for several months after epidemic onset, while incorporating a reaction to disease presence with decreasing adherence to mitigation strategies, as well as a seasonal effect on the restoration of the initial transmissibility conditions.
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ISSN 1932-6203 ISBN (up) Medium
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Notes WOS:000843613300089 Approved
Call Number UAI @ alexi.delcanto @ Serial 1629
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