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Author (up) Fierro, R.; Leiva, V. pdf  doi
  Title A stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed Type
  Year 2017 Publication Stochastic Environmental Research And Risk Assessment Abbreviated Journal Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess.  
  Volume 31 Issue 9 Pages 2327-2336  
  Keywords Earthquake data analysis; Exponential and gamma distributions; Maximum-likelihood method; Monte Carlo simulation; Nonhomogeneous Poisson process  
  Abstract We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes.  
  Address [Fierro, Raul] Univ Valparaiso, Inst Matemat, Valparaiso, Chile, Email:  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Springer Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3240 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes WOS:000414782800011 Approved  
  Call Number UAI @ eduardo.moreno @ Serial 796  
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