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Author (up) O'Ryan, R.; Benavides, C.; Diaz, M.; San Martin, J.P.; Mallea, J. doi  openurl
  Title Using probabilistic analysis to improve greenhouse gas baseline forecasts in developing country contexts: the case of Chile Type Journal Article
  Year 2019 Publication Climate Policy Abbreviated Journal Climate Pol.  
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  Abstract In this paper, initial steps are presented toward characterizing, quantifying, incorporating and communicating uncertainty applying a probabilistic analysis to countrywide emission baseline forecasts, using Chile as a case study. Most GHG emission forecasts used by regulators are based on bottom-up deterministic approaches. Uncertainty is usually incorporated through sensitivity analysis and/or use of different scenarios. However, much of the available information on uncertainty is not systematically included. The deterministic approach also gives a wide range of variation in values without a clear sense of probability of the expected emissions, making it difficult to establish both the mitigation contributions and the subsequent policy prescriptions for the future. To improve on this practice, we have systematically included uncertainty into a bottom-up approach, incorporating it in key variables that affect expected GHG emissions, using readily available information, and establishing expected baseline emissions trajectories rather than scenarios. The resulting emission trajectories make explicit the probability percentiles, reflecting uncertainties as well as possible using readily available information in a manner that is relevant to the decision making process. Additionally, for the case of Chile, contradictory deterministic results are eliminated, and it is shown that, whereas under a deterministic approach Chile’s mitigation ambition does not seem high, the probabilistic approach suggests this is not necessarily the case. It is concluded that using a probabilistic approach allows a better characterization of uncertainty using existing data and modelling capacities that are usually weak in developing country contexts.  
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  ISSN 1469-3062 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number UAI @ eduardo.moreno @ Serial 956  
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