An Age-Structured Model For The Coupled Dynamics Of Hiv And Hsv-2
Kapitanov
G
author
Alvey
C
author
Vogt-Geisse
K
author
Feng
Z
L
author
2015
English
Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation – the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.
HIV
HSV-2
mathematical epidemiology
co-infection
population dynamics
basic reproduction number
invasion reproduction number
partial differential equations
sensitivity analysis
age-structure
sexually transmitted diseases
WOS:000354138400012
exported from refbase (show.php?record=488), last updated on Mon, 22 Jun 2015 10:04:45 -0300
text
files/488_Kapitanov_etal2015.pdf
10.3934/mbe.2015.12.803
Kapitanov_etal2015
Mathematical Biosciences And Engineering
Math. Biosci. Eng.
2015
Amer Inst Mathematical Sciences
continuing
periodical
academic journal
12
4
803
840
1547-1063