A stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed
Fierro
R
author
Leiva
V
author
2017
English
We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes.
Earthquake data analysis
Exponential and gamma distributions
Maximum-likelihood method
Monte Carlo simulation
Nonhomogeneous Poisson process
WOS:000414782800011
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text
files/796_Fierro+Leiva2017.pdf
10.1007/s00477-016-1288-5
Fierro+Leiva2017
Stochastic Environmental Research And Risk Assessment
Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess.
2017
Springer
continuing
periodical
academic journal
31
9
2327
2336
1436-3240