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Arriagada, R., Aldunce, P., Blanco, G., Ibarra, C., Moraga, P., Nahuelhual, L., et al. (2018). Climate change governance in the anthropocene: emergence of polycentrism in Chile. Elementa-Sci. Anthrop., 6, 13 pp.
Abstract: Multilateral efforts are essential to an effective response to climate change, but individual nations define climate action policy by translating local and global objectives into adaptation and mitigation actions. We propose a conceptual framework to explore opportunities for polycentric climate governance, understanding polycentricity as a property that encompasses the potential for coordinating multiple centers of semiautonomous decision-making. We assert that polycentrism engages a diverse array of public and private actors for a more effective approach to reducing the threat of climate change. In this way, polycentrism may provide an appropriate strategy for addressing the many challenges of climate governance in the Anthropocene. We review two Chilean case studies: Chile's Nationally Determined Contribution on Climate Change and the Chilean National Climate Change Action Plan. Our examination demonstrates that Chile has included a diversity of actors and directed significant financial resources to both processes. The central government coordinated both of these processes, showing the key role of interventions at higher jurisdictional levels in orienting institutional change to improve strategic planning and better address climate change. Both processes also provide some evidence of knowledge co-production, while at the same time remaining primarily driven by state agencies and directed by technical experts. Efforts to overcome governance weaknesses should focus on further strengthening existing practices for climate change responses, establishing new institutions, and promoting decision-making that incorporates diverse social actors and multiple levels of governance. In particular, stronger inclusion of local level actors provides an opportunity to enhance polycentric modes of governance and improve climate change responses. Fully capitalizing on this opportunity requires establishing durable communication channels between different levels of governance.
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Caceres, G., Montane, M., Nasirov, S., & O'Ryan, R. (2016). Review of Thermal Materials for CSP Plants and LCOE Evaluation for Performance Improvement using Chilean Strategic Minerals: Lithium Salts and Copper Foams. Sustainability, 8(2), 20 pp.
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Calvo, R., Alamos, N., Huneeus, N., & O'Ryan, R. (2022). Energy poverty effects on policy-based PM2.5 emissions mitigation in southern and central Chile. Energy Policy, 161, 112762.
Abstract: Residential firewood burning is the main source of PM2.5 emissions in southern and central Chile. In Chile, approximately 4000 premature deaths are observed each year due to air pollution. Mitigation policies aim to reduce dwellings' energy demand and foster cleaner but more expensive energy sources. Pre-existing energy poverty conditions are often overlooked in these policies, even though they can negatively affect the adoption of these measures. This article uses southern and central Chile as a case study to assess quantitatively different policy scenarios of PM2.5 emissions between 2017 and 2050, considering energy poverty-related effects. Results show that PM2.5 emissions will grow 16% over time under a business as usual scenario. If thermal improvement and stove/heater replacements are implemented, PM2.5 reductions depend on the scale of the policy: a 5%-6% reduction of total southern and central Chile PM2.5 emissions if only cities with Atmospheric Decontamination Plans are included; a 54%-56% reduction of PM2.5 emissions if these policies include other growing cities. Our study shows that the energy poverty effect potentially reduces the effectiveness of these measures in 25%. Consequently, if no anticipatory measures are taken, Chile's energy transition goals could be hindered and the effectiveness of mitigation policies to improve air quality significantly reduced.
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Gallardo, L., Barraza, F., Ceballos, A., Galleguillos, M., Huneeus, N., Lambert, F., et al. (2018). Evolution of air quality in Santiago: The role of mobility and lessons from the science-policy interface. Elementa-Sci. Anthrop., 6, 23 pp.
Abstract: Worldwide, urbanization constitutes a major and growing driver of global change and a distinctive feature of the Anthropocene. Thus, urban development paths present opportunities for technological and societal transformations towards energy efficiency and decarbonization, with benefits for both greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollution mitigation. This requires a better understanding of the intertwined dynamics of urban energy and land use, emissions, demographics, governance, and societal and biophysical processes. In this study, we address several characteristics of urbanization in Santiago (33.5 degrees S, 70.5 degrees W, 500 m a.s.l.), the capital city of Chile. Specifically, we focus on the multiple links between mobility and air quality, describe the evolution of these two aspects over the past 30 years, and review the role scientific knowledge has played in policy-making. We show evidence of how technological measures (e.g., fuel quality, three-way catalytic converters, diesel particle filters) have been successful in decreasing coarse mode aerosol (PM10) concentrations in Santiago despite increasing urbanization (e.g., population, motorization, urban sprawl). However, we also show that such measures will likely be insufficient if behavioral changes do not achieve an increase in the use of public transportation. Our investigation seeks to inform urban development in the Anthropocene, and our results may be useful for other developing countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean where more than 80% of the population is urban.
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Ibarra, C., Jimenez, G., O'Ryan, R., Blanco, G., Cordero, L., Insunza, X., et al. (2022). Scientists and climate governance: A view from the South. Environ. Sci. Policy, 137, 396–405.
Abstract: The importance of science for climate governance has strengthened over time and the topic inspires prolific academic writing on the influence of scientists and scientific knowledge on policy decisions. One of the streams of research in the field is inspired by Cash ' s (2003) seminal work highlighting how the role of scientists depends on perceptions of salience, credibility and legitimacy. Other views call for attention to the politics involved in scientific performance while influencing policy and on the local circumstances, considering the many ways in which societies relate to science and expertise. The role of scientists in climate governance is a contested issue, relevant for many research centres aiming to influence policy decisions given the urgency of the climate crisis. To better understand this role, we reviewed mainstream international literature and identified four main ap-proaches, which we label: scientific usable knowledge, politics of science, critical approaches and hybrid ap-proaches. We contrasted the results with the experience of scientists from a Chilean climate research centre, to provide a view from the South on the role of scientists in climate governance. Our results show that Cash ' s approach was a common ground for Chilean climate scientists, upon which they build ideas on the importance of building long-term relationships between scientists and policy makers. However, they also acknowledged the need to take into consideration the role of politics in climate-related decisions and the power relations and actor ' s interests.
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Ibarra, C., O'Ryan, R., & Silva, B. (2018). Applying knowledge governance to understand the role of science in environmental regulation: The case of arsenic in Chile. Environ. Sci. Policy, 86, 115–124.
Abstract: The relationship between scientific knowledge and decision-making surrounding environmental issues is complex and represents a flourishing area of scholarship and practice. However, a sense of frustration persists regarding efforts to increase the use of science for decision-making. Regulations of copper smelter arsenic emissions developed in Chile during the 1990s represent a successful example of science informing policy making. The case involved production and use of local science in contrast to the common practice of copying international ambient standards. In this paper, we investigate arsenic regulation in Chile in the 1990s and focus on the role of the major science intervention during the process, project FONDEF 2-24. The case is examined through the lens of knowledge governance (van Kerkhoff and Pilbeam, 2017). This theoretically-oriented approach guides our critical reflection on the relationship between knowledge and policy making, taking into consideration the formal and informal rules that shape the intervention and the underlying social and cultural patterns. The success of the science intervention's influence on policy is better understood with such a perspective. We expand the knowledge governance approach by scrutinizing the relations of coherence between levels of analysis to assess their alignment. The approach could be helpful for studying other cases, particularly at times when a new field of policy is emerging.
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Montane, M., Caceres, G., Villena, M., & O'Ryan, R. (2017). Techno-Economic Forecasts of Lithium Nitrates for Thermal Storage Systems. Sustainability, 9(5), 15 pp.
Abstract: Thermal energy storage systems (TES) are a key component of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants that generally use a NaNO3/KNO3 mixture also known as solar salt as a thermal storage material. Improvements in TES materials are important to lower CSP costs, increase energy efficiency and competitiveness with other technologies. A novel alternative examined in this paper is the use of salt mixtures with lithium nitrate that help to reduce the salt's melting point and improve thermal capacity. This in turn allows the volume of materials required to be reduced. Based on data for commercial plants and the expected evolution of the lithium market, the technical and economic prospects for this alternative are evaluated considering recent developments of Lithium Nitrates and the uncertain future prices of lithium. Through a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis it is concluded that some of the mixtures could allow a reduction in the costs of CSP plants, improving their competitiveness.
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Nasirov, S., O'Ryan, R., & Osorio, H. (2020). Decarbonization Tradeoffs: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling Analysis for the Chilean Power Sector. Sustainability, 12(19), 19 pp.
Abstract: Medium size developing countries like Chile that commit to decarbonization goals need to carefully assess the trade-offs associated to their intensity and timing, since most of the technologies required will be absorbed, not produced, by these countries. A rapid expansion of renewables in the Chilean energy matrix, mostly thanks to exceptional solar and wind resources, combined with a rapid decrease in the cost of renewable energy technologies, intensified current policy debates to reduce the role of coal, which is the largest source of CO2 emissions in the generation mix. Recently, the main generation companies in Chile made a voluntary commitment to not invest in new coal projects that do not include carbon capture and storage systems. In addition, the Chilean government announced its plans to phase out coal plants completely by 2040. In this context, the aim of this research is to study the economy-wide and emission reduction impacts of different decarbonization paths in the Chilean power sector. For this purpose, we consider dynamic simulations using a new energy-oriented version of the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)- General Equilibrium Model for the Chilean Economy (ECOGEM)-Chile which is soft linked to the bottom-up engineering energy model. The results show the major impacts under both the business as usual (BAU) scenario and the coal phase-out scenario. Additionally, the study discusses to what extent the ambitious decarbonization goals of the Chilean government are coherent with the current technological limitations.
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O'Ryan, R., & Pereira, M. (2015). Participatory indicators of sustainability for the salmon industry: The case of Chile. Mar. Pol., 51, 322–330.
Abstract: In this paper a methodological approach is proposed and applied to undertake a participatory process to obtain sustainable development indicators for the salmon sector in Chile including a common vision of sustainability for this industry. The selected indicators are a mix of bottom-up and top-down approaches, which capture the specific needs and perceptions of the different stakeholders related to salmon farming while allowing a high degree of international comparability. A detailed step by step description of the methodology allows understanding how to obtain acceptable social, economic and environmental indicators, a result that can be replicated in other natural resource based productive sectors that are common in developing contexts. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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O'Ryan, R., Nasirov, S., & Alvarez-Espinosa, A. (2020). Renewable energy expansion in the Chilean power market: A dynamic general equilibrium modeling approach to determine CO2 emission baselines. J. Clean Prod., 247, 11 pp.
Abstract: Over the last decade, a high dependency on carbon-intensive fuels in the Chilean power sector has led to environmental concerns, particularly regarding rapid growth in CO2 emissions. More recently, the power sector has experienced significant structural changes with a rapid expansion of renewables in the energy matrix, and this trend is expected to cause significant variations in future CO2-emission baseline scenarios. To investigate the economy-wide impact of renewable energy expansions in Chile's energy mix, this research, based on a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, examines different CO2 emission baseline scenarios. However, because traditional CGE modeling approaches cannot capture the impact of a sector's recent structural changes, we present a step-by-step approach to incorporate different energy matrices from an external engineering bottom-up model into the CGE model. The results indicate that the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, in which structural changes are not considered, significantly overstates expected emissions. Conversely, considering structural changes in our CGE model shows Chile advancing towards its declared Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, the methodology implemented in the study has the advantage of being a simple integrated approach that is coherent with current modeling capacities in many developing contexts. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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O'Ryan, R., Nasirov, S., & Osorio, H. (2023). Assessment of the potential impacts of a carbon tax in Chile using dynamic CGE model. J. Clean. Prod., 403, 136694.
Abstract: Carbon taxes have been proposed as a major instrument to mitigate carbon emissions and promote an energy transition to low carbon sources. However, its adoption remains politically challenging, particularly amid rising inflation and energy prices. Despite the need for more aggressive action on carbon mitigation to reach the Paris Agreement goals, few countries in Latin America have adopted carbon taxes and the tax levels are relatively low. A key concern for these countries, is to adequately assess the tradeoffs between stricter emission goals and the potential negative economy wide as well as sectoral and distributive impacts. In this context, in this paper we first propose a step by step approach to enhance an existing dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Chile based on OECD's Green model. The contribution of this research is twofold. Firstly, emission factors are estimated and the development of the electricity sector is aligned with the expectations of decision makers. As a result, credible emission and energy sector development forecasts are generated by the model, that are in line with what policymakers expect to happen based on other bottom-up engineering models. Secondly, this baseline is then used in the CGE model to examine the use of a carbon tax to reach Chile's first Nationally Determined Contribution. The required tax level is determined together with CO2 emissions and the econo-mywide, sectoral and distributive impacts. The results allow concluding about the applicability of carbon taxes and possible complementary measures.
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O'Ryan, R., Villavicencio, A., Gajardo, J., Ulloa, A., Ibarra, C., & Rojas, M. (2023). Building back better in Latin America: examining the sustainability of COVID-19 recovery and development programs. Glob. Sustain., 6.
Abstract: Non-technical summaryThe significant outlays by countries in the Global South to recover from the COVID-19 crisis could have been an opportunity to build back better, advancing both a green recovery and addressing pressing social problems, thus advancing sustainability. To examine if this was the case, in this paper we analyze the expected impacts of recovery initiatives in five Latin American countries. Our results show that these programs do not support the possibility of building back better, weakly impacting 12 dimensions related to sustainability. We also propose a methodology to improve how sustainability concerns can be included in future choice of projects. Technical summaryIt has been argued that the significant outlays by governments across the world required to recover from the COVID-19 crisis can be an opportunity to build back better, that is, advance toward greener societies. In the Global South, which suffered acute social, economic and environmental problems prior to this health crisis, recovery initiatives would be best suited to focus on sustainable economic recovery which – along with the environmental concerns of a green recovery – could address pressing local problems. To this end, we analyzed the expected impacts of recovery initiatives in five Latin American countries on each of 71 sustainability criteria. These criteria are based on the UN sustainable development goals and other relevant literature related to sustainable development. Using principal component analysis, criteria are grouped into 12 dimensions. Our results show that recovery programs examined do not take advantage of the possibility of building back better, and many relevant dimensions related to a sustainable recovery are only weakly considered. Our methodology provides a step forward toward supporting governments in their efforts to identify better policies and investment projects and consequently put together packages of initiatives that advance on sustainability, green recovery or other long-term goals they may have. Social media summaryMethodology to analyze COVID-19 recovery packages shows small impact on sustainability in five Latin American countries.
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