Abstract: Exchange rates are determined by factors such as interest rates, political stability, confidence, the current account on balance of payments, government intervention, economic growth and relative inflation rates, among other variables. In October 2019, an increased climate of citizen discontent with current social policies resulted in a series of massive protests that ignited important political changes in Chile. This event along with the global COVID-19 pandemic were two major factors that affected the value of the US dollar and produced sudden changes in the typically stable USD/CLP (Chilean Peso) exchange rate. In this paper, we use a Bayesian approach to detect and locate change points in the currency exchange rate process in order to identify and relate these points with the important dates related to the events described above. The implemented method can successfully detect the onset of the social protests, the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile and the economic reactivation in the US and Europe. In addition, we evaluate the performance of the proposed MCMC algorithms using a simulation study implemented in Python and R.

Abstract: Across several medical fields, developing an approach for disease classification is an important challenge. The usual procedure is to fit a model for the longitudinal response in the healthy population, a different model for the longitudinal response in the diseased population, and then apply Bayes' theorem to obtain disease probabilities given the responses. Unfortunately, when substantial heterogeneity exists within each population, this type of Bayes classification may perform poorly. In this article, we develop a new approach by fitting a Bayesian nonparametric model for the joint outcome of disease status and longitudinal response, and then we perform classification through the clustering induced by the Dirichlet process. This approach is highly flexible and allows for multiple subpopulations of healthy, diseased, and possibly mixed membership. In addition, we introduce an Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme that facilitates the assessment of the inference and prediction capabilities of our model. Finally, we demonstrate the method by predicting pregnancy outcomes using longitudinal profiles on the human chorionic gonadotropin beta subunit hormone levels in a sample of Chilean women being treated with assisted reproductive therapy.

Abstract: Araucanian herring, Strangomera bentincki, is ecologically and economically important. Its complexity, like that of other pelagic fish, arises from seasonal population changes related to distribution with different spatial dynamics and demographic fractions, subject to strong environmental and fishing exploitation variations. This implies the necessity for a thorough understanding of biological processes, which are interpreted with the help of various activities, and directly or indirectly allow to infer and deliver adequate indicators. These activities facilitate a correct technical analysis and consistent conclusions for resource management and administration. In this context, the present study identified and addressed the need to integrate information on Araucanian herring lengths made available in historical series from commercial fleet fishing and sources such as special monitoring, hydroacoustic cruises, and monitoring during closed seasons. The study focused on methodologies widely used in biostatistics that allow analyzing the feasibility of integrating data from different origins, focused on evaluating the correct management of size structures that vary by origin, sample size, and volumes extracted. We call this tool meta-estimation. It estimates the integration of biological-fishery size indicators that originated mainly from commercial fishing and research fisheries for central-south pelagic fishery with data of catch between January and July 2018.

Abstract: Enhancing the understanding of passenger satisfaction in public transportation is crucial for operators to refine transit services and to establish and elevate quality standards. While many researchers have tackled this issue using diverse tools and methods, the prevalent approach involves surveys with discrete choice models or structural equations. However, a common limitation of these models lies in their inherent assumptions and predefined relationships between dependent and independent variables. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel perspective by harnessing machine learning (ML) models to gauge and predict passenger satisfaction. ML models are advantageous when dealing with complex, non-linear relationships and massive datasets, and do not rely on predefined assumptions. Thus, in this paper, we evaluate four ML models for the prediction of ratings of the quality of transit service. These models were calibrated using data from the Transantiago bus system in Chile. Among the ML models, the Random Forest model emerges as the most effective, showcasing its ability to analyze and predict passengers' satisfaction levels. We delve deeper into its capabilities by examining the impact of three pivotal variables on passengers' score ratings: waiting time, bus occupation, and bus speed. The Random Forest model is able to capture threshold values for these variables that significantly influence or have no effect on passenger preferences.

Abstract: Many lifetime distribution models have successfully served as population models for risk analysis and reliability mechanisms. We propose a novel estimation procedure of stress-strength reliability in the case of two independent unit-half-normal distributions can fit asymmetrical data with either positive or negative skew, with different shape parameters. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimator of the reliability, its asymptotic distribution, and exact and asymptotic confidence intervals. In addition, confidence intervals of model parameters are constructed by using bootstrap techniques. We study the performance of the estimators based on Monte Carlo simulations, the mean squared error, average bias and length, and coverage probabilities. Finally, we apply the proposed reliability model in data analysis of burr measurements on the iron sheets.

Abstract: Mild cognitive impairment ( AQ1 MCI) is often considered an early stage of dementia, with estimated rates of progression to dementia up to 80�90% after approximately 6 years from the initial diagnosis. Diagnosis of cognitive impairment in dementia is typically based on clinical evaluation, neuropsychological assessments, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers, and neuroimaging. The main goal of diagnosing MCI is to determine its cause, particularly whether it is due to Alzheimer�s disease (AD). However, only a limited percentage of the population has access to etiological confirmation, which has led to the emergence of peripheral fluid biomarkers as a diagnostic tool for dementias, including MCI due to AD. Recent advances in biofluid assays have enabled the use of sophisticated statistical models and multimodal machine learning (ML) algorithms for
the diagnosis of MCI based on fluid biomarkers from CSF, peripheral blood, and saliva, among others. This approach has shown promise for identifying specific causes of MCI, including AD. After a PRISMA analysis, 29 articles revealed a trend
towards using multimodal algorithms that incorporate additional biomarkers such as neuroimaging, neuropsychological tests, and genetic information. Particularly, neuroimaging is commonly used in conjunction with fluid biomarkers for both crosssectional and longitudinal studies. Our systematic review suggests that cost-effective longitudinal multimodal monitoring data, representative of diverse cultural populations and utilizing white-box ML algorithms, could be a valuable contribution to the development of diagnostic models for AD due to MCI. Clinical assessment and biomarkers, together with ML techniques, could prove pivotal in improving diagnostic tools for MCI due to AD.