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Acuna, M., Eaton, L., & Cifuentes, L. (2004). Genetic variants of the paraoxonases (PON1 and PON2) in the Chilean population. Hum. Biol., 76(2), 299–305.
Abstract: We estimated the frequencies of PON1 and PON2 variants (linked genes) in two hospital samples taken from the northern (San Jose Hospital, SJH) and eastern (Clinica Las Condes, CLC) parts of Santiago, Chile, using the polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction endonuclease digestion. The two hospital samples have different degrees of Amerindian admixture (SJH, 34.5%; CLC, 15.9%), which is reflected in the observed frequencies of the PON1*B allele (SJH, 43.1%; CLC, 33.7%) and the PON2*S allele (SJH, 86.3%; CLC, 77.6%); both allele frequencies are significantly different between samples. The frequencies of the combined PON1-PON2 genotypes *A/*B-*C/*C, *A/*B-*S/*S, and *B/*B-*S/*S and of the haplotypes PON*A,C and PON*B,S were significantly different between the SJH and CLC groups. None of the genotype frequencies deviated significantly from those predicted by the Hardy-Weinberg equation. No linkage disequilibrium was found between the PON1 alleles and any of the PON2 alleles in either group (all p > 0.05). In our samples 38.52% (SJH) and 26.25% (CLC) of chromosomes must have the haplotype PON*B,S, presumed to be related to the risk of coronary artery disease. Twenty-four of 193 (12.4%) SJH individuals and 7 of 122 (5.7%) CLC individuals were homozygotes for this haplotype. Finally, our data indicate ethnic-group-dependent genetic differences in the vulnerability to toxic organophosphorus.
Keywords: PON1; PON2; paraoxonase; Chilean population; Amerindian admixture; coronary artery disease
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Agostini, C. A., Armijo, F. A., Silva, C., & Nasirov, S. (2021). The role of frequency regulation remuneration schemes in an energy matrix with high penetration of renewable energy. Renew. Energy, 171, 1097–1114.
Abstract: Renewable energies (RE) in Chile and around the world have experienced outstanding growth in recent years. However, RE technologies such as solar photovoltaic and wind generate an imbalance between generation (offer) and consumption (demand) because of their intermittent and variable nature. Moreover, RE & rsquo;s natural variability makes it necessary for conventional technologies to play a significant role in adjusting for the imbalance in the electric system frequency. As variable RE penetration grows, the need for frequency regulation will increase and, depending on how those higher costs are financed, this could lead to a disincentive to invest in conventional plants that provide that service. In this paper we study the impact of increased photovoltaic energy penetration, the leading RE in Chile, on the profitability of different conventional generation technologies. Specifically, we analyze the role that the frequency control remuneration mechanism has on that impact. For this purpose, four different solar photovoltaic penetration scenarios are simulated in Chile & rsquo;s Northern System, comparing two payment criteria for frequency regulation services: i) a cost-based pricing system whose payments relate to the incurred costs and ii) a market-based pricing system where the marginal cost of providing the services is paid. The results show that as installed photovoltaic capacity increases, the average marginal cost of energy (operation cost) decreases due to a displacement of more expensive power plants, but at the same time, investment cost may increase. In the long run, contract prices change as a result of falling operational costs and rising investment cost, resulting in changes in the profitability of all technologies. Finally, while both cost-based and market-based systems reward the ability to regulate frequency, the technologies performing the regulation receive different payments for the service, affecting both their profitability and the incentives for investment.
Keywords: Renewable energy; Frequency control; Ancillary services; Chile
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Agostini, C. A., Guzman, A. M., Nasirov, S., & Silva, C. (2019). A surplus based framework for cross-border electricity trade in South America. Energy Policy, 128, 673–684.
Abstract: The South American region has experienced a steady increase in its demand for electricity and faces several challenges in the development of the electricity sector. Among them, high fluctuations in hydro generation, high and volatile prices of fossil fuels, and environmental and social impacts associated to energy activities. Strengthening cooperation for cross-border electricity trade is considered a sustainable alternative for addressing these challenges. For the expansion of electricity trade among countries within the region, both infrastructure and a regulation that defines the conditions of the electric power exchanges between countries are required. A good regulatory framework would allow all market players to have access to the commercialization of energy with other countries in the region, guarantee that the treatment of exchanges is non-discriminatory, and maintain the efficiency, cost effectiveness and security characteristics operation of all electricity systems. In this context, this paper proposes a framework with the basic setting conditions for the import and export of energy from the “surplus” available for exchange. The empirical analysis of the regulatory proposal, based on simulations, shows that the exchange of energy from Chile with its neighboring countries is feasible in a clear and transparent manner, reducing the marginal costs of energy and the total cost of operation, keeping the average cost of generation relatively constant.
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Agostini, C. A., Nasirov, S., & Silva, C. (2016). Solar PV Planning Toward Sustainable Development in Chile: Challenges and Recommendations. J. Environ. Dev., 25(1), 25–46.
Abstract: Over the past decade, the promotion of renewable energy projects in Chile, especially solar energy projects, has become increasingly important, as energy dependence from foreign fossil fuels has increased and concerns regarding climate change continue to grow, posing a significant challenge to the local economy. Even though recent developments toward a more sustainable energy matrix in Chile have significantly increased the investment in the solar energy sector, social and environmental fragilities, combined with the lack of well-functioning institutions and the historical marginalization of indigenous communities who have been affected by several energy projects, result in gradually increasing conflictive situations. Unless proper mechanisms are designed and implemented to rapidly and correctly address these challenges, Chile could miss the opportunities that solar energy projects can provide to the development of its communities and to the economic growth of its regions. This article studies solar photovoltaics planning in Chile, focusing on the recent developments and the main challenges ahead, and proposes policy recommendations for effectively addressing these challenges.
Keywords: solar energy; sustainability; development; Chile; policy challenges
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Agostini, C. A., Perticara, M., & Selman, J. (2023). Tackling Vulnerable Households through a Working Tax Credit Scheme: A Feasible Alternative to Cash Transfers. Hacienda Publica Espanola, 245(SI), 119–155.
Abstract: Conditional Cash Transfer Programs (CCTs) have been extremely popular strategies to fight poverty in developing countries for the last three decades. Although these programs can be effective to improve the welfare of the poor in the short run and even to guarantee basic health care and education services, they can also discourage employment and reduce formality rates. Furthermore, they can create welfare dependence and prevent the generation of autonomous income. Many developed countries have been using the income tax system not only to redistribute income but also to implement social policies. A good example is the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) in the United States, which offers a reimbursable credit conditioned on working to low-income individuals. This paper uses Chilean data to empirically analyze the effect that a system such as the EITC would have on poverty and inequality in a developing country. Our polity targets single 18-60 years old women, without a partner, with and without eligible children. The results show that a tax credit could increase employment while reducing poverty and inequality. Additionally, we show that an EITC design might be more cost-effective to increase the income of individuals below the poverty line and to reduce inequality. Given that a program like the EITC mostly benefits those who have a higher chance of seeking and obtaining employment in the formal sector, such policy should be implemented as a complementary tool to other social policy programs aimed at helping individuals out of the informal sector.
Keywords: EITC; Poverty; Inequality; Ethical family income; Chile
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Agostini, C. A., Silva, C., & Nasirov, S. (2017). Failure of Energy Mega-Projects in Chile: A Critical Review from Sustainability Perspectives. Sustainability, 9(6), 17 pp.
Abstract: A number of successive energy crises over the last decade due to the lack of a balanced investment planning in the energy sector in Chile has led to a strong dependence on external sources and also doubled energy prices in the country, thus posing a significant challenge to the local economy. With the purpose of reaching long-term goals while simultaneously addressing short-term urgencies, Chile seeks to build a consistent and integrated energy policy in order to attract investment in the sector. Despite an overall attractive investment climate and encouraging market conditions in the country, the energy sector has been adversely affected, in particular, by the communities' opposition to mega-projects based on their expected environmental and social impacts. The study highlights recent experiences of energy generation mega-projects in terms of addressing aspects of sustainability. Based on these experiences, it discusses underdeveloped role of environmental evaluations and the main regulatory challenges ahead, recommending then public policies to effectively address these challenges.
Keywords: energy mega-projects; Chile; environmental evaluation; sustainability
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Araya-Letelier, G., Parra, P. F., Lopez-Garcia, D., Garcia-Valdes, A., Candia, G., & Lagos, R. (2019). Collapse risk assessment of a Chilean dual wall-frame reinforced concrete office building. Eng. Struct., 183, 770–779.
Abstract: Several code-conforming reinforced concrete buildings were severely damaged during the 2010 moment magnitude (M-w) 8.8 Chile earthquake, raising concerns about their real collapse margin. Although critical updates were introduced into the Chilean design codes after 2010, guidelines for collapse risk assessment of Chilean buildings remain insufficient. This study evaluates the collapse potential of a typical dual system (shear walls and moment frames) office building in Santiago. Collapse fragility functions were obtained through incremental dynamic analyses using a state-of-the-art finite element model of the building. Site-specific seismic hazard curves were developed, which explicitly incorporated epistemic uncertainty, and combined with the collapse fragility functions to estimate the mean annual frequency of collapse (lambda(c)) values and probabilities of collapse in 50-years (P-c(50)). Computed values of lambda(c) and P-c(50) were on the order of 10(-5)-10(-4), and 0.1-0.7%, respectively, consistent with similar studies developed for buildings in the US. The results also showed that the deaggregation of lambda(c) was controlled by small to medium earthquake intensities and that different models of the collapse fragility functions and hazard curves had a non-negligible effect on lambda(c) and P-c(50), and thus, propagation of uncertainty in risk assessment problems must be adequately taken into account.
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Arriagada, R., Aldunce, P., Blanco, G., Ibarra, C., Moraga, P., Nahuelhual, L., et al. (2018). Climate change governance in the anthropocene: emergence of polycentrism in Chile. Elementa-Sci. Anthrop., 6, 13 pp.
Abstract: Multilateral efforts are essential to an effective response to climate change, but individual nations define climate action policy by translating local and global objectives into adaptation and mitigation actions. We propose a conceptual framework to explore opportunities for polycentric climate governance, understanding polycentricity as a property that encompasses the potential for coordinating multiple centers of semiautonomous decision-making. We assert that polycentrism engages a diverse array of public and private actors for a more effective approach to reducing the threat of climate change. In this way, polycentrism may provide an appropriate strategy for addressing the many challenges of climate governance in the Anthropocene. We review two Chilean case studies: Chile's Nationally Determined Contribution on Climate Change and the Chilean National Climate Change Action Plan. Our examination demonstrates that Chile has included a diversity of actors and directed significant financial resources to both processes. The central government coordinated both of these processes, showing the key role of interventions at higher jurisdictional levels in orienting institutional change to improve strategic planning and better address climate change. Both processes also provide some evidence of knowledge co-production, while at the same time remaining primarily driven by state agencies and directed by technical experts. Efforts to overcome governance weaknesses should focus on further strengthening existing practices for climate change responses, establishing new institutions, and promoting decision-making that incorporates diverse social actors and multiple levels of governance. In particular, stronger inclusion of local level actors provides an opportunity to enhance polycentric modes of governance and improve climate change responses. Fully capitalizing on this opportunity requires establishing durable communication channels between different levels of governance.
Keywords: Climate change; Governance; Polycentrism; Public consultation; Chile
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Baez-Villanueva, O. M., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Miralles, D. G., Beck, H. E., Siegmund, J. F., Alvarez-Garreton, C., et al. (2024). On the timescale of drought indices for monitoring streamflow drought considering catchment hydrological regimes. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28(6), 1415–1439.
Abstract: There is a wide variety of drought indices, yet a consensus on suitable indices and temporal scales for monitoring streamflow drought remains elusive across diverse hydrological settings. Considering the growing interest in spatially distributed indices for ungauged areas, this study addresses the following questions: (i) What temporal scales of precipitation-based indices are most suitable to assess streamflow drought in catchments with different hydrological regimes? (ii) Do soil moisture indices outperform meteorological indices as proxies for streamflow drought? (iii) Are snow indices more effective than meteorological indices for assessing streamflow drought in snow-influenced catchments? To answer these questions, we examined 100 near-natural catchments in Chile with four hydrological regimes, using the standardised precipitation index (SPI), standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), empirical standardised soil moisture index (ESSMI), and standardised snow water equivalent index (SWEI), aggregated across various temporal scales. Cross-correlation and event coincidence analysis were applied between these indices and the standardised streamflow index at a temporal scale of 1 month (SSI-1), as representative of streamflow drought events. Our results underscore that there is not a single drought index and temporal scale best suited to characterise all streamflow droughts in Chile, and their suitability largely depends on catchment memory. Specifically, in snowmelt-driven catchments characterised by a slow streamflow response to precipitation, the SPI at accumulation periods of 12-24 months serves as the best proxy for characterising streamflow droughts, with median correlation and coincidence rates of approximately 0.70-0.75 and 0.58-0.75, respectively. In contrast, the SPI at a 3-month accumulation period is the best proxy over faster-response rainfall-driven catchments, with median coincidence rates of around 0.55. Despite soil moisture and snowpack being key variables that modulate the propagation of meteorological deficits into hydrological ones, meteorological indices are better proxies for streamflow drought. Finally, to exclude the influence of non-drought periods, we recommend using the event coincidence analysis, a method that helps assessing the suitability of meteorological, soil moisture, and/or snow drought indices as proxies for streamflow drought events.
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Balocchi, F., Galleguillos, M., Rivera, D., Stehr, A., Arumi, J. L., Pizarro, R., et al. (2023). Forest hydrology in Chile: Past, present, and future. J. Hydrol., 616, 128681.
Abstract: This paper reviews the current knowledge of hydrological processes in Chilean temperate forests which extend along western South America from latitude 29 degrees S to 56 degrees S. This geographic region includes a diverse range of natural and planted forests and a broad sweep of vegetation, edaphic, topographic, geologic, and climatic set-tings which create a unique natural laboratory. Many local communities, endangered freshwater ecosystems, and downstream economic activities in Chile rely on water flows from forested catchments. This review aims to (i) provide a comprehensive overview of Chilean forest hydrology, to (ii) review prior research in forest hydrology in Chile, and to (iii) identify knowledge gaps and provide a vision for future research on forest hydrology in Chile. We reviewed the relation between native forests, commercial plantations, and other land uses on water yield and water quality from the plot to the catchment scale. Much of the global understanding of forests and their relationship with the water cycle is in line with the findings of the studies reviewed here. Streamflow from forested catchments increases after timber harvesting, native forests appear to use less water than plantations, and streams draining native forest yield less sediment than streams draining plantations or grassland/shrublands. We identified 20 key knowledge gaps such as forest groundwater systems, soil-plant-atmosphere interactions, native forest hydrology, and the effect of forest management and restoration on hydrology. Also, we found a paucity of research in the northern geographic areas and forest types (35-36 degrees S); most forest hydrology studies in Chile (56%) have been conducted in the southern area (Los Rios Region around 39-40 degrees S). There is limited knowledge of the geology and soils in many forested areas and how surface and groundwater are affected by changes in land cover. There is an opportunity to advance our understanding using process-based investigations linking field studies and modeling. Through the establishment of a forest hydrology science “society” to coor-dinate efforts, regional and national-scale land use planning might be supported. Our review ends with a vision to advance a cross-scale collaborative effort to use new nation-wide catchment-scale networks Long-term Ecosystem Research (LTER) sites, to promote common and
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Caceres, G., Nasirov, S., Zhang, H. L., & Araya-Letelier, G. (2015). Residential Solar PV Planning in Santiago, Chile: Incorporating the PM10 Parameter. Sustainability, 7(1), 422–440.
Abstract: This paper addresses an economic study of the installation of photovoltaic (PV) solar panels for residential power generation in Santiago, Chile, based on the different parameters of a PV system, such as efficiency. As a performance indicator, the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) was used, which indicates the benefit of the facility vs. the current cost of electrical energy. In addition, due to a high level of airborne dusts typically associated with PM10, the effect of the dust deposition on PV panels' surfaces and the effect on panel performance are examined. Two different scenarios are analyzed: on-grid PV plants and off-grid PV plants.
Keywords: PV solar panels; efficiency; LCOE; dust; PM10; Santiago; Chile
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Campos-Valdes, C., Alvarez-Miranda, E., Quiroga, M. M., Pereira, J., & Duran, F. L. (2021). The Impact of Candidates' Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach. Mathematics, 9(8), 902.
Abstract: In recent years, a wide range of techniques has been developed to predict electoral results and to measure the influence of different factors in these results. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the political profile of candidates (characterized by personal and political features) and their campaign effort (characterized by electoral expenditure and by territorial deployment strategies retrieved from social networks activity) on the electoral results. This analysis is carried out by using three of the most frequent data analyitcs algorithms in the literature. For our analysis, we consider the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Chile, which are the first elections after a major reform of the electoral system, that encompassed a transition from a binomial to a proportional system, a modification of the districts' structure, an increase in the number of seats, and the requirement of gender parity in the lists of the different coalitions. The obtained results reveal that, regardless of the political coalition, the electoral experience of candidates, in particular in the same seat they are running for (even when the corresponding district is modified), is by large the most influential factor to explain the electoral results. However, the attained results show that the influence of other features, such as campaign expenditures, depends on the political coalition. Additionally, by means of a simulation procedure, we show how different levels of territorial deployment efforts might impact on the results of candidates. This procedure could be used by parties and coalitions when planning their campaign strategies.
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Cataldo-Born, M., Araya-Letelier, G., & Pabon, C. (2016). Obstacles and motivations for earthbag social housing in Chile: energy, environment, economic and codes implications. Rev. Constr., 15(3), 17–26.
Abstract: Chile presents a social housing deficit that needs to be addressed with solutions that increase habitability and environmental benefits. This paper addresses the benefits of implementing earthbag buildings as an option to mitigate the existing social housing deficit in Chile. A literature review presents details on the use of earthbag buildings around the world, and motivations and obstacles for implementing earthbag buildings in Chile. In particular, a case study was simulated to compare an earthbag social house to a reinforced brick masonry social house in terms of environmental and economic performances such as CO2 emissions, energy and costs. It is concluded that both alternatives generate similar CO2 emissions, but the earthbag social house can save up to 20% of energy during its life cycle. In economic terms, the earthbag social house generates savings of 50% and 38% for initial investment and life cycle cost, respectively, compared to the reinforced brick masonry social house. The implementation of earthbag social housing projects would be encouraged by the development of a Chilean building code for earthbag design that provides guidance on the safe use of this technique in a seismic country.
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Cordero, R., Mascareno, A., Henriquez, P. A., & Ruz, G. A. (2022). Drawing constitutional boundaries: A digital historical analysis of the writing process of Pinochet's 1980 authoritarian constitution. Hist. Methods, 55(3), 145–167.
Abstract: Drawing conceptual boundaries is one of the defining features of constitution-making processes. These historically situated operations of boundary making are central to the definition of what counts as “constitutional” in a political community. In this article, we study the operations of conceptual delimitation performed by the Constitutional Commission (1973-1978) that drafted the 1980 Chilean Constitution, the trademark of Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship. Using the eleven volumes of the Commission's Official Records as our textual material (10,915 pages and 80,005 distinct words), we apply vector semantics, spectral clustering and bigram graph-based analysis to explore conceptual boundaries and the behavior of specific keywords shaping the space of constitutional meanings. Our results identify the ways in which the Commission defines the normative horizon of the new social and political order by transforming old semantic references into a renewed conceptual framework. This analysis shows the immanent relations between political action and conceptual elaboration that underlie the creation of constitutional texts, as well as the potential of computational methods for the study of constitutional history and constitution-making processes.
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Corral, N., Anrique, N., Fernandes, D., Parrado, C., & Caceres, G. (2012). Power, placement and LEC evaluation to install CSP plants in northern Chile. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 16(9), 6678–6685.
Abstract: Chile is expecting a 5.4% growth in energy consumption per year until 2030, requiring new and better solutions for the upward trend of its electricity demand. This state leads to select and study one of the potential alternatives for electricity generation: concentrated solar power (CSP) plants. Such renewable technology found in Chile a very favorable condition. Recent researches indicate Atacama Desert as one of the best regions for solar energy worldwide, having an average radiation higher than in places where CSP plants are currently implemented, e.g. Spain and USA. The aim of this study is to present an analysis of levelized energy cost (LEC) for different power capacities of CSP plants placed in distinct locations in northern Chile. The results showed that CSP plants can be implemented in Atacama Desert with LECs around 19 (sic)US$/kWh when a gas-fired backup and thermal energy storage (TES) systems are fitted. This value increases to approximately 28 (sic)US$/kWh if there is no backup system. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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de la Cruz, R., Meza, C., Narria, N., & Fuentes, C. (2022). A Bayesian Change Point Analysis of the USD/CLP Series in Chile from 2018 to 2020: Understanding the Impact of Social Protests and the COVID-19 Pandemic. Mathematics, 10(18), 3380.
Abstract: Exchange rates are determined by factors such as interest rates, political stability, confidence, the current account on balance of payments, government intervention, economic growth and relative inflation rates, among other variables. In October 2019, an increased climate of citizen discontent with current social policies resulted in a series of massive protests that ignited important political changes in Chile. This event along with the global COVID-19 pandemic were two major factors that affected the value of the US dollar and produced sudden changes in the typically stable USD/CLP (Chilean Peso) exchange rate. In this paper, we use a Bayesian approach to detect and locate change points in the currency exchange rate process in order to identify and relate these points with the important dates related to the events described above. The implemented method can successfully detect the onset of the social protests, the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile and the economic reactivation in the US and Europe. In addition, we evaluate the performance of the proposed MCMC algorithms using a simulation study implemented in Python and R.
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Ferrada, F., Babonneau, F., Homem-de-Mello, T., & Jalil-Vega, F. (2023). The role of hydrogen for deep decarbonization of energy systems: A Chilean case study. Energy Policy, 177, 113536.
Abstract: In this paper we implement a long-term multi-sectoral energy planning model to evaluate the role of green hydrogen in the energy mix of Chile, a country with a high renewable potential, under stringent emission reduction objectives in 2050. Our results show that green hydrogen is a cost-effective and environmentally friendly route especially for hard-to-abate sectors, such as interprovincial and freight transport. They also suggest a strong synergy of hydrogen with electricity generation from renewable sources. Our numerical simulations show that Chile should (i) start immediately to develop hydrogen production through electrolyzers all along the country, (ii) keep investing in wind and solar generation capacities ensuring a low cost hydrogen production and reinforce the power transmission grid to allow nodal hydrogen production, (iii) foster the use of electric mobility for cars and local buses and of hydrogen for long-haul trucks and interprovincial buses and, (iv) develop seasonal hydrogen storage and hydrogen cells to be exploited for electricity supply, especially for the most stringent emission reduction objectives.
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Gallardo, L., Barraza, F., Ceballos, A., Galleguillos, M., Huneeus, N., Lambert, F., et al. (2018). Evolution of air quality in Santiago: The role of mobility and lessons from the science-policy interface. Elementa-Sci. Anthrop., 6, 23 pp.
Abstract: Worldwide, urbanization constitutes a major and growing driver of global change and a distinctive feature of the Anthropocene. Thus, urban development paths present opportunities for technological and societal transformations towards energy efficiency and decarbonization, with benefits for both greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollution mitigation. This requires a better understanding of the intertwined dynamics of urban energy and land use, emissions, demographics, governance, and societal and biophysical processes. In this study, we address several characteristics of urbanization in Santiago (33.5 degrees S, 70.5 degrees W, 500 m a.s.l.), the capital city of Chile. Specifically, we focus on the multiple links between mobility and air quality, describe the evolution of these two aspects over the past 30 years, and review the role scientific knowledge has played in policy-making. We show evidence of how technological measures (e.g., fuel quality, three-way catalytic converters, diesel particle filters) have been successful in decreasing coarse mode aerosol (PM10) concentrations in Santiago despite increasing urbanization (e.g., population, motorization, urban sprawl). However, we also show that such measures will likely be insufficient if behavioral changes do not achieve an increase in the use of public transportation. Our investigation seeks to inform urban development in the Anthropocene, and our results may be useful for other developing countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean where more than 80% of the population is urban.
Keywords: Air quality; mobility; urbanization; climate mitigation; policy-science interface; Chile
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Gallegos, M. F., Araya-Letelier, G., Lopez-Garcia, D., & Parra, P. F. (2023). Collapse Assessment of Mid-Rise RC Dual Wall-Frame Buildings Subjected to Subduction Earthquakes. Buildings, 13(4), 880.
Abstract: In Chile, office buildings are typically reinforced concrete (RC) structures whose lateral load-resisting system comprises core structural walls and perimeter moment frames (i.e., dual wall-frame system). In the last 20 years, nearly 800 new dual wall-frame buildings have been built in the country and roughly 70% of them have less than ten stories. Although the seismic performance of these structures was deemed satisfactory in previous earthquakes, their actual collapse potential is indeed unknown. In this study, the collapse performance of Chilean code-conforming mid-rise RC buildings is assessed considering different hazard levels (i.e., high and moderate seismic activity) and different soil types (i.e., stiff and moderately stiff). Following the FEMA P-58 methodology, 3D nonlinear models of four representative structural archetypes were subjected to sets of Chilean subduction ground motions. Incremental dynamic analysis was used to develop collapse fragilities. The results indicate that the archetypes comply with the 'life safety' risk level defined in ASCE 7, which is consistent with the observed seismic behavior in recent mega-earthquakes in Chile. However, the collapse risk is not uniform. Differences in collapse probabilities are significant, which might indicate that revisions to the current Chilean seismic design code might be necessary.
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Garmendia, M. L., Matus, O., Mondschein, S., & Kusanovic, J. P. (2018). Gestational weight gain recommendations for Chilean women: a mathematical optimization approach. Public Health, 163, 80–86.
Abstract: Objectives: We examined if the guidelines for gestational weight gain (GWG) proposed by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) are the most suitable for Chilean women. Study design: Secondary analysis of records of single full-term births at the Dr. Sotero del Rio Hospital, Santiago, Chile, during 2003-2012 (n = 62,579). Methods: From clinical records, we obtained data regarding maternal age, height, prepregnancy and at delivery weights, pathologies during pregnancy such as gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-eclampsia, gestational age at delivery, and number of infants born small for gestational age (SGA) and large for gestational age (LGA). We formulated a mathematical model (MM) to determine the GWG range that maximizes the likelihood of a healthy pregnancy (HP) if the recommendation is followed. We defined an HP as one where the mother has no complications such as pre-eclampsia, GDM, SGA, or LGA. Results: Forty-six percent of women had prepregnancy overweight or obesity. The prevalence of GDM, pre-eclampsia, SGA, and LGA were 3%, 1.2%, 9%, and 12%, respectively. An HP was present in 76% of pregnancies, 79% in the underweight group, 79% in normal weight group, 74% in the overweight group, and 67% in obese women. The GWG recommendations given by the MM (14-20 kg for underweight, 6-20 kg for normal weight, 9 -11 kg for overweight, and 6-7 kg for obese) led to higher probabilities of achieving an HP than the ones obtained with the IOM recommendations. Conclusion: The adoption of GWG recommendations based on characteristics of the Chilean population might lead to better short- and long-term health results for pregnant women. (C) 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Pregnancy; Weight gain; Obesity; Pregnancy high risk; Chile
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