Abstract: We propose answer-set programs that specify and compute counterfactual interventions on entities that are input on a classification model. In relation to the outcome of the model, the resulting counterfactual entities serve as a basis for the definition and computation of causality-based explanation scores for the feature values in the entity under classification, namely responsibility scores. The approach and the programs can be applied with black-box models, and also with models that can be specified as logic programs, such as rule-based classifiers. The main focus of this study is on the specification and computation of best counterfactual entities, that is, those that lead to maximum responsibility scores. From them one can read off the explanations as maximum responsibility feature values in the original entity. We also extend the programs to bring into the picture semantic or domain knowledge. We show how the approach could be extended by means of probabilistic methods, and how the underlying probability distributions could be modified through the use of constraints. Several examples of programs written in the syntax of the DLV ASP-solver, and run with it, are shown.

Abstract: Bioelution assays are fast, simple alternatives to in vivo testing. In this study, the intra- and inter-laboratory variability in bioaccessibility data generated by bioelution tests were evaluated in synthetic fluids relevant to oral, inhalation, and dermal exposure. Using one defined protocol, five laboratories measured metal release from cobalt oxide, cobalt powder, copper concentrate, Inconel alloy, leaded brass alloy, and nickel sulfate hexahydrate. Standard deviations of repeatability (S-r) and reproducibility (S-R) were used to evaluate the intra- and inter-laboratory variability, respectively. Examination of the s(R):s(r) ratios demonstrated that, while gastric and lysosomal fluids had reasonably good reproducibility, other fluids did not show as good concordance between laboratories. Relative standard deviation (RSD) analysis showed more favorable reproducibility outcomes for some data sets; overall results varied more between- than within-laboratories. RSD analysis of s(r) showed good within-laboratory variability for all conditions except some metals in interstitial fluid. In general, these findings indicate that absolute bioaccessibility results in some biological fluids may vary between different laboratories. However, for most applications, measures of relative bioaccessibility are needed, diminishing the requirement for high inter-laboratory reproducibility in absolute metal releases. The inter-laboratory exercise suggests that the degrees of freedom within the protocol need to be addressed. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Abstract: Neural networks with random weights have the advantage of fast computational time in both training and testing. However, one of the main challenges of single layer feedforward neural networks is the selection of the optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer, since few/many neurons lead to problems of underfitting/overfitting. Adapting Garson's algorithm, this paper introduces a new efficient and fast non-iterative algorithm for the selection of neurons in the hidden layer for randomization based neural networks. The proposed approach is divided into three steps: (1) train the network with h hidden neurons, (2) apply Garson's algorithm to the matrix of the hidden layer, and (3) perform pruning reducing hidden layer neurons based on the harmonic mean. Our experiments in regression and classification problems confirmed that the combination of the pruning technique with these types of neural networks improved their predictive performance in terms of mean square error and accuracy. Additionally, we tested our proposed pruning method with neural networks trained under sequential learning algorithms, where Random Vector Functional Link obtained, in general, the best predictive performance compared to online sequential versions of extreme learning machines and single hidden layer neural network with random weights. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract: In last mile distribution, logistics companies typically arrange and plan their routes based on broad estimates of stop delivery times (i.e., the time spent at each stop to deliver goods to final receivers). If these estimates are not accurate, the level of service is degraded, as the promised time window may not be satisfied. The purpose of this work is to assess the feasibility of machine learning techniques to predict stop delivery times. This is done by testing a wide range of machine learning techniques (including different types of ensembles) to (1) predict the stop delivery time and (2) to determine whether the total stop delivery time will exceed a predefined time threshold (classification approach). For the assessment, all models are trained using information generated from GPS data collected in Medellin, Colombia and compared to hazard duration models. The results are threefold. First, the assessment shows that regression-based machine learning approaches are not better than conventional hazard duration models concerning absolute errors of the prediction of the stop delivery times. Second, when the problem is addressed by a classification scheme in which the prediction is aimed to guide whether a stop time will exceed a predefined time, a basic K-nearest-neighbor model outperforms hazard duration models and other machine learning techniques both in accuracy and F-1 score (harmonic mean between precision and recall). Third, the prediction of the exact duration can be improved by combining the classifiers and prediction models or hazard duration models in a two level scheme (first classification then prediction). However, the improvement depends largely on the correct classification (first level).

Abstract: Cellular automata are locally defined, homogeneous dynamical systems, discrete in space, time and state variables. Within the context of one-dimensional, binary, cellular automata operating on cyclic configurations of odd length, we consider the general decision problem: if the initial configuration satisfies a given property, the lattice should converge to the fixed-point of all 1s ((1) over right arrow), or to (0) over right arrow, otherwise. Two problems in this category have been widely studied in the literature, the parity problem [1] and the density classification task [4]. We are interested in determining all cellular automata rules with neighborhood sizes of 2, 3, 4 and 5 cells (i.e., radius r of 0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2.5) that solve decision problems of the previous type. We have demonstrated a theorem that, for any given rule in those spaces, ensures the non existence of fixed points other than (0) over right arrow and (1) over right arrow for configurations of size larger than 2(2r), provided that the rule does not support different fixed points for any configuration with size smaller than or equal to 2(2r). In addition, we have a proposition that ensures the convergence to only (0) over right arrow or (1) over right arrow of any initial configuration, if the rule complies with given conditions. By means of theoretical and computational approaches, we determined that: for the rule spaces defined by radius 0.5 and r = 1, only 1 and 2 rules, respectively, converge to (1) over right arrow or (0) over right arrow, to any initial configuration, and both recognize the same language, and for the rule space defined by radius r = 1.5, 40 rules satisfy this condition and recognize 4 different languages. Finally, for the radius 2 space, out of the 4,294,967,296 different rules, we were able to significantly filter it out, down to 40,941 candidate rules. We hope such an extensive mining should unveil new decision problems of the type widely studied in the literature.

Abstract: Decision problems addressed by cellular automata have been historically expressed either as determining whether initial configurations would belong to a given language, or as classifying the initial configurations according to a property in them. Unlike traditional approaches in language recognition, classification problems have typically relied upon cyclic configurations and fully paralell (two-way) update of the cells, which render the action of the cellular automaton relatively less controllable and difficult to analyse. Although the notion of cyclic languages have been studied in the wider realm of formal languages, only recently a more systematic attempt has come into play in respect to cellular automata with fully parallel update. With the goal of contributing to this effort, we propose a unified definition of classification problem for one-dimensional, binary cellular automata, from which various known problems are couched in and novel ones are defined, and analyse the solvability of the new problems. Such a unified perspective aims at increasing existing knowledge about classification problems by cellular automata over cyclic configurations and parallel update.

Abstract: For decades, Out-of-Stock (OOS) events have been a problem for retailers and manufacturers. In grocery retailing, an OOS event is used to characterize the condition in which customers do not find a certain commodity while attempting to buy it. This paper focuses on addressing this problem from a manufacturer’s perspective, conducting a case study in a retail packaged foods manufacturing company located in Latin America. We developed two machine learning based systems to detect OOS events automatically. The first is based on a single Random Forest classifier with balanced data, and the second is an ensemble of six different classification algorithms. We used transactional data from the manufacturer information system and physical audits. The novelty of this work is our use of new predictor variables of OOS events. The system was successfully implemented and tested in a retail packaged foods manufacturer company. By incorporating the new predictive variables in our Random Forest and Ensemble classifier, we were able to improve their system’s predictive power. In particular, the Random Forest classifier presented the best performance in a real-world setting, achieving a detection precision of 72% and identifying 68% of the total OOS events. Finally, the incorporation of our new predictor variables allowed us to improve the performance of the Random Forest by 0.24 points in the F-measure.

Abstract: The classic classification scheme for active galactic nuclei (AGNs) was recently challenged by the discovery of the so-called changing-state (changing-look) AGNs. The physical mechanism behind this phenomenon is still a matter of open debate and the samples are too small and of serendipitous nature to provide robust answers. In order to tackle this problem, we need to design methods that are able to detect AGNs right in the act of changing state. Here we present an anomaly-detection technique designed to identify AGN light curves with anomalous behaviors in massive data sets. The main aim of this technique is to identify CSAGN at different stages of the transition, but it can also be used for more general purposes, such as cleaning massive data sets for AGN variability analyses. We used light curves from the Zwicky Transient Facility data release 5 (ZTF DR5), containing a sample of 230,451 AGNs of different classes. The ZTF DR5 light curves were modeled with a Variational Recurrent Autoencoder (VRAE) architecture, that allowed us to obtain a set of attributes from the VRAE latent space that describes the general behavior of our sample. These attributes were then used as features for an Isolation Forest (IF) algorithm that is an anomaly detector for a “one class” kind of problem. We used the VRAE reconstruction errors and the IF anomaly score to select a sample of 8809 anomalies. These anomalies are dominated by bogus candidates, but we were able to identify 75 promising CSAGN candidates.