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Capotondi, A., McGregor, S., McPhaden, M. J., Cravatte, S., Holbrook, N. J., Imada, Y., et al. (2023). Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4(11), 754–769.
Abstract: Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7-70 years – tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) – describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. A deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.
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Martinez-Villalobos, C., & Neelin, J. D. (2023). Regionally high risk increase for precipitation extreme events under global warming. Sci. Rep., 13, 5579.
Abstract: Daily precipitation extremes are projected to intensify with increasing moisture under global warming following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship at about 7%/∘C
. However, this increase is not spatially homogeneous. Projections in individual models exhibit regions with substantially larger increases than expected from the CC scaling. Here, we leverage theory and observations of the form of the precipitation probability distribution to substantially improve intermodel agreement in the medium to high precipitation intensity regime, and to interpret projected changes in frequency in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Besides particular regions where models consistently display super-CC behavior, we find substantial occurrence of super-CC behavior within a given latitude band when the multi-model average does not require that the models agree point-wise on location within that band. About 13% of the globe and almost 25% of the tropics (30% for tropical land) display increases exceeding 2CC. Over 40% of tropical land points exceed 1.5CC. Risk-ratio analysis shows that even small increases above CC scaling can have disproportionately large effects in the frequency of the most extreme events. Risk due to regional enhancement of precipitation scale increase by dynamical effects must thus be included in vulnerability assessment even if locations are imprecise.
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