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Valle, M. A., Ruz, G. A., & Masias, V. H. (2017). Using self-organizing maps to model turnover of sales agents in a call center. Appl. Soft. Comput., 60, 763–774.
Abstract: This paper proposes an approach for modeling employee turnover in a call center using the versatility of supervised self-organizing maps. Two main distinct problems exist for the modeling employee turnover: first, to predict the employee turnover at a given point in the sales agent's trial period, and second to analyze the turnover behavior under different performance scenarios by using psychometric information about the sales agents. Identifying subjects susceptible to not performing well early on, or identifying personality traits in an individual that does not fit with the work style is essential to the call center industry, particularly when this industry suffers from high employee turnover rates. Self-organizing maps can model non-linear relations between different attributes and ultimately find conditions between an individual's performance and personality attributes that make him more predisposed to not remain long in an organization. Unlike other models that only consider performance attributes, this work successfully uses psychometric information that describes a sales agent's personality, which enables a better performance in predicting turnover and analyzing potential personality profiles that can identify agents with better prospects of a successful career in a call center. The application of our model is illustrated and real data are analyzed from an outbound call center. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Valle, M. A., Ruz, G. A., & Varas, S. (2015). A survival model based on met expectations Application to employee turnover in a call center. Acad.-Rev. Latinoam. Adm., 28(2), 177–194.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a model of voluntary employee turnover based on the theory of met expectations and self-perceived efficacy of the employee, using data from a field survey conducted in a call center. Design/methodology/approach – The paper formulates a model of employee turnover. First explaining the fulfillment of expectations from initial expectations of the employee (before starting work) and their experience after a period of time. Second, explaining the turnover of employees from the fulfillment of their expectations. Findings – Some of the variability in the fulfillment of expectations can be explained by the difference between expectations and experiences in different job dimensions (e.g. income levels and job recognition). Results show that the level of fulfillment of expectations helps explain the process of employee turnover. Research limitations/implications – This work provides evidence for the met expectation theory, where the gap between the individual's expectations and subsequent experiences lead to abandonment behaviors in the organization. Practical implications – The results suggest two paths of action to reduce the high turnover rates in the call center: the first, through realistic expectations setting of the employee, and the second, with a constant monitoring of the fulfillment of those expectations. Originality/value – A statistical model of survival is used, which is appropriate for the study of the employee turnover processes, and its inherent temporal nature.
Valle, M. A., Varas, S., & Ruz, G. A. (2012). Job performance prediction in a call center using a naive Bayes classifier. Expert Syst. Appl., 39(11), 9939–9945.
Abstract: This study presents an approach to predict the performance of sales agents of a call center dedicated exclusively to sales and telemarketing activities. This approach is based on a naive Bayesian classifier. The objective is to know what levels of the attributes are indicative of individuals who perform well. A sample of 1037 sales agents was taken during the period between March and September of 2009 on campaigns related to insurance sales and service pre-paid phone services, to build the naive Bayes network. It has been shown that, socio-demographic attributes are not suitable for predicting performance. Alternatively, operational records were used to predict production of sales agents, achieving satisfactory results. In this case, the classifier training and testing is done through a stratified tenfold cross-validation. It classified the instances correctly 80.60% of times, with the proportion of false positives of 18.1% for class no (does not achieve minimum) and 20.8% for the class yes (achieves equal or above minimum acceptable). These results suggest that socio-demographic attributes has no predictive power on performance, while the operational information of the activities of the sale agent can predict the future performance of the agent. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.