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Nasirov, S., & Agostini, C. A. (2018). Mining experts' perspectives on the determinants of solar technologies adoption in the Chilean mining industry. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 95, 194–202.
Abstract: The energy demand in Chile arises mostly from mining, its largest industry that accounts for about 35% of total electricity consumption. Energy generation to satisfy this demand depends completely on imported fossil fuels. As a result, the mining industry faces several energy related challenges. In particular, the cost and environmental impact of fuel sources are threatening the competitiveness of the industry and urge for new developments. In that regard, the importance of using clean and cost-competitive renewable energy sources has increased significantly in Chile and several government policies helped to increase the investment in them. The impact has been particularly large in the development of solar energy in the northern part of the country, where almost all mines are located. In fact, the country has become one of the largest solar markets in Latin America thanks to its abundant solar resources, favorable market conditions, and successful policy reforms. Solar energy then, could play a significant role as an alternative to satisfy the mining industry's energy demand offering a broad range of technological solutions. This study examines the key issues – barriers and drivers-influencing the adoption of solar technologies in the Chilean mining industry from the perspective of mining actors. As a result of the analysis the paper also provides a scope for appropriate policy interventions.
Keywords: Mining industry; Energy challenges; Solar energy; Chile
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Nasirov, S., Agostini, C., Silva, C., & Caceres, G. (2018). Renewable energy transition: a market-driven solution for the energy and environmental concerns in Chile. Clean Technol. Environ. Policy, 20(1), 3–12.
Abstract: Chile is undergoing a remarkable energy matrix transition to renewable energy. Renewable energies are expanding extraordinarily fast, exceeding earlier predictions. As a result, the country is expected to meet its 2025 goal of generating 20% of its electricity from renewable energy sources quite before. Chile has become one of the first countries in the world with subsidy-free markets, where renewable projects compete directly with other conventional sources. Favorable market conditions and successful policy reforms were keys to fostering this renewable energy development. Although the country has achieved a substantial growth in renewable energy investment in a relatively short period of time, this optimism should be treated with caution. A successful transition requires a combination of a clear decision making, persistent and consistent government policies, and a clear commitment to tackling challenges to accommodate renewable energy in the power system. In this context, this paper analyses the Chilean renewable industry and the required government policies to succeed in this transition. For this purpose, we identify several critical factors that have attracted and that could attract investment to the renewable energy sector and propose key recommendations to effectively address the major challenges faced for the future development of the industry.
Keywords: Energy transition; Energy policy; Renewable energy technologies; Chile
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Nasirov, S., Agostini, C. A., & Silva, C. (2017). An assessment of the implementation of renewable energy sources in the light of concerns over Chilean policy objectives. Energy Sources Part B, 12(8), 715–721.
Abstract: In recent years, the development of renewable energies in the electricity market in Chile has gained significant attention as a key alternative for energy sources diversification and meeting three key policy objectives: energy availability, environmental protection, and social-economic development. This study aims to assess various renewable energy sources in order to select suitable sources to accomplish the different policy goals in a country like Chile. For this purpose, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method is employed to evaluate the relative importance of policy objectives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to build various different policy scenarios measuring the impact of variations on the current weights of the decision criteria. The results show that solar, wind, and small hydro are the preferred sources in the Chilean renewable energy portfolio, maximizing the objective of meeting the three policy goals at the same time.
Keywords: Chile; MCDA; policy objectives; renewable energy; sensitivity analysis
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Nasirov, S., Cruz, E., Agostini, C. A., & Silva, C. (2019). Policy Makers' Perspectives on the Expansion of Renewable Energy Sources in Chile's Electricity Auctions. Energies, 12(21), 17 pp.
Abstract: Chile has become one of the first few countries where renewable sources compete directly with conventional generation in price-based auctions. Moreover, the results of energy auctions during the last few years show a remarkable transition from conventional fossil fuels to renewable energies. In fact, the energy auction in 2017, to provide energy to customers from distribution companies, achieved a massive expansion in renewable technology at one of the lowest prices in the world. These positive results prompted the question if such results were permanent or temporal due to factors with limited effects. In this regard, this paper studies the key factors that drove the significant rise of renewable technologies in Chilean energy auctions, obtaining valuable lessons for regulators, not only in Chile, but also in the region and the world. For this purpose, we considered a well-proven method based on a hybrid multicriteria decision-making model to examine and prioritize the main drivers of the expansion of renewables in auctions. The results showed that some specific characteristics of the auction design, particularly the hourly supply blocks, the lead time for project construction, and contract duration, were the most significant drivers for the expansion of renewables in energy auctions. Moreover, the results showed that, provided that the auction design accommodates for such drivers, solar energy ends up as the most attractive technology in the Chilean auctions. The research also shows the main findings are robust by the application of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
Keywords: renewable energy; auctions; regulator's perspective; Chile
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Nasirov, S., Silva, C., & Agostini, C. A. (2015). Investors' Perspectives on Barriers to the Deployment of Renewable Energy Sources in Chile. Energies, 8(5), 3794–3814.
Abstract: In the last decade, the importance of exploiting Chile's Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) has increased significantly, as fossil fuel prices have risen and concerns regarding climate change issues grown, posing an important threat to its economy. However, to date, the advancement of Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) in the country has been very limited due to various barriers. For this reason, identifying and mitigating the main barriers that hamper the advancement of RETs is necessary to allow the successful deployment of these technologies. Based on data collected from a questionnaire survey and interviews conducted among the major renewable project developers, the authors identify and rank the major barriers to the adoption of renewable energy technologies in Chile. Our findings show that the most significant barriers include grid connection constraints and lack of grid capacity, longer processing times for a large number of permits, land and/or water lease securement and limited access to financing. Furthermore, we discuss the most critical barriers in detail together with policy recommendations to overcome them.
Keywords: renewables; energy; investors; Chile; barriers
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Nasirov, S., Silva, C., & Agostini, C. A. (2016). Assessment of barriers and opportunities for renewable energy development in Chile. Energy Sources Part B, 11(2), 150–156.
Abstract: Chile has become increasingly dependent on energy imports and its energy demand has grown exponentially in the past decade, impacting the environment and the production costs in the economy. In fact, electricity prices have doubled and it is expected that they will soar in the next decade if Chile does not find a solution for its dependence on imported energy resources. Recent developments, particularly improvements in the regulatory framework and incentives for renewables, have accelerated the growth process and investment opportunities of renewable energy technologies (RETs). However, RETs have faced a number of constraints affecting their penetration. In this article, we review the existing opportunities and also identify and rank the major barrier categories for the development of RETs in the Chilean context. For this purpose, the analytical hierarchy process technique has been utilized for ranking the barriers based on experts' opinions (selected from academia and industry).
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O' Ryan, R., Benavides, C., Diaz, M., San Martin, J. P., & Mallea, J. (2019). Using probabilistic analysis to improve greenhouse gas baseline forecasts in developing country contexts: the case of Chile. Clim. Policy, 19(3), 299–314.
Abstract: In this paper, initial steps are presented toward characterizing, quantifying, incorporating and communicating uncertainty applying a probabilistic analysis to countrywide emission baseline forecasts, using Chile as a case study. Most GHG emission forecasts used by regulators are based on bottom-up deterministic approaches. Uncertainty is usually incorporated through sensitivity analysis and/or use of different scenarios. However, much of the available information on uncertainty is not systematically included. The deterministic approach also gives a wide range of variation in values without a clear sense of probability of the expected emissions, making it difficult to establish both the mitigation contributions and the subsequent policy prescriptions for the future. To improve on this practice, we have systematically included uncertainty into a bottom-up approach, incorporating it in key variables that affect expected GHG emissions, using readily available information, and establishing expected baseline emissions trajectories rather than scenarios. The resulting emission trajectories make explicit the probability percentiles, reflecting uncertainties as well as possible using readily available information in a manner that is relevant to the decision making process. Additionally, for the case of Chile, contradictory deterministic results are eliminated, and it is shown that, whereas under a deterministic approach Chile's mitigation ambition does not seem high, the probabilistic approach suggests this is not necessarily the case. It is concluded that using a probabilistic approach allows a better characterization of uncertainty using existing data and modelling capacities that are usually weak in developing country contexts. Key policy insights Probabilistic analysis allows incorporating uncertainty systematically into key variables for baseline greenhouse gas emission scenario projections. By using probabilistic analysis, the policymaker can be better informed as to future emission trajectories. Probabilistic analysis can be done with readily available data and expertise, using the usual models preferred by policymakers, even in developing country contexts.
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O'Ryan, R., Nasirov, S., & Alvarez-Espinosa, A. (2020). Renewable energy expansion in the Chilean power market: A dynamic general equilibrium modeling approach to determine CO2 emission baselines. J. Clean Prod., 247, 11 pp.
Abstract: Over the last decade, a high dependency on carbon-intensive fuels in the Chilean power sector has led to environmental concerns, particularly regarding rapid growth in CO2 emissions. More recently, the power sector has experienced significant structural changes with a rapid expansion of renewables in the energy matrix, and this trend is expected to cause significant variations in future CO2-emission baseline scenarios. To investigate the economy-wide impact of renewable energy expansions in Chile's energy mix, this research, based on a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, examines different CO2 emission baseline scenarios. However, because traditional CGE modeling approaches cannot capture the impact of a sector's recent structural changes, we present a step-by-step approach to incorporate different energy matrices from an external engineering bottom-up model into the CGE model. The results indicate that the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, in which structural changes are not considered, significantly overstates expected emissions. Conversely, considering structural changes in our CGE model shows Chile advancing towards its declared Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, the methodology implemented in the study has the advantage of being a simple integrated approach that is coherent with current modeling capacities in many developing contexts. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: CGE model; Renewable energy; CO2 emissions; Chile
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Pabon-Pereira, C., Slingerland, M., Hogervorst, S., van Lier, J., & Rabbinge, R. (2019). A Sustainability Assessment of Bioethanol (EtOH) Production: The Case of Cassava in Colombia. Sustainability, 11(14), 23 pp.
Abstract: This paper shows how system design determines sustainability outcomes of cassava bioethanol production in Colombia. The recovery of the energy contained in by-products is recommended as compared to single product production. In particular, this study assesses the energy, greenhouse gases, water, and land use performance of alternative cassava cascades working at different scales, highlighting the implications of including anaerobic digestion technology in the chain. The centralized systems showed a poorer energy and greenhouse gases performance as compared to decentralized ones in part due to the artificial drying of cassava chips in the centralized facility. Under solar drying of cassava chips, systems with anaerobic digestion produced three to five times more energy than demanded and produced greenhouse gas savings of 0.3 kgCO(2eq) L EtOH-1. The water balance output depends upon the water reuse within the ethanol industry, which demands 21-23 L EtOH-1. In the anaerobic digestion scenarios, assuming liquid flows are treated separately, complete water recovery is feasible. Land use for cassava cultivation was calculated to be 0.27-0.35 ha tEtOH(-1). The energy and water content of the material to digest, the options for digestate reuse, and the recovery of the methane produced are major considerations substantially influencing the role of anaerobic digestion within cassava cascade configurations.
Keywords: cassava; bioethanol; energy crops; sustainability analysis; biofuels; bioenergy production
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Pabon-Pereira, C. P., Castanares, G., & van Lier, J. B. (2012). An OxiTop (R) protocol for screening plant material for its biochemical methane potential (BMP). Water Sci. Technol., 66(7), 1416–1423.
Abstract: A protocol was developed for determining the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of plant material using the OxiTop (R) system. NaOH pellets for CO2 absorption and different pretreatment methods were tested for their influence in the BMP test. The use of NaOH pellets in the headspace of the bottle negatively affected the stability of the test increasing the pH and inhibiting methanization. Sample comminution increased the biodegradability of plant samples. Our results clearly indicate the importance of test conditions during the assessment of anaerobic biodegradability of plant material, considering BMP differences as high as 44% were found. Guidelines and recommendations are given for screening plant material suitable for anaerobic digestion using the OxiTop (R) system.
Keywords: anaerobic biodegradability; BMP test; energy crops; NaOH pellets; pretreatments
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Pabon-Pereira, C. P., de Vries, J. W., Slingerland, M. A., Zeeman, G., & van Lier, J. B. (2014). Impact of crop-manure ratios on energy production and fertilizing characteristics of liquid and solid digestate during codigestion. Environ. Technol., 35(19), 2427–2434.
Abstract: The influence of maize silage-manure ratios on energy output and digestate characteristics was studied using batch experiments. The methane production, nutrients availability (N and P) and heavy metals' content were followed in multiflask experiments at digestion times 7, 14, 20, 30 and 60 days. In addition, the available nutrient content in the liquid and solid parts of the digestate was evaluated. Aanaerobic digestion favoured the availability of nutrients to plants, after 61 days 20-26% increase in NH4+ and 0-36% increase in PO43- were found in relation to initial concentrations. Digestion time and maize addition increased the availability of PO43-. Inorganic nutrients were found to be mainly available in the liquid part of the digestate, i.e. 80-92% NH4+ and 65-74% PO43-. Manure had a positive effect on the methane production rate, whereas maize silage increased the total methane production per unit volatile solids in all treatments.
Keywords: anaerobic digestion; codigestion; digestate; energy crops; maize silage; manure
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Parrado, C., Caceres, G., Bize, F., Bubnovich, V., Baeyens, J., Degreve, J., et al. (2015). Thermo-mechanical analysis of copper-encapsulated NaNO3-KNO3. Chem. Eng. Res. Des., 93, 224–231.
Abstract: The present paper presents a numerical study to investigate and assess the heat transfer behavior of a copper and salt composite. A mixture of nitrates, KNO3-NaNO3, within a deformable spherical shell coating of copper will be used as an encapsulated phase change material, E-PCM. In the context of a thermo-mechanical analysis of this E-PCM, a simulation is proposed to determine its storage capacity and properties The melting, or solidification of the encapsulated PCM particles do not provoke cracking of the deformable shell. (C) 2014 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Perez, A. P., Sauma, E. E., Munoz, F. D., & Hobbs, B. F. (2016). The Economic Effects of Interregional Trading of Renewable Energy Certificates in the US WECC. Energy J., 37(4), 267–295.
Abstract: In the U.S., individual states enact Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) for renewable electricity production with little coordination. Each state imposes restrictions on the amounts and locations of qualifying renewable generation. Using a co-optimization (transmission and generation) planning model, we quantify the long run economic benefits of allowing flexibility in the trading of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) among the U.S. states belonging to the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). We characterize flexibility in terms of the amount and geographic eligibility of out-of-state RECs that can be used to meet a state's RPS goal. Although more trade would be expected to have economic benefits, neither the size of these benefits nor the effects of such trading on infrastructure investments, CO2 emissions and energy prices have been previously quantified. We find that up to 90% of the economic benefits are captured if approximately 25% of unbundled RECs are allowed to be acquired from out of state. Furthermore, increasing REC trading flexibility does not necessarily result in either higher transmission investment costs or a substantial impact on CO2 emissions. Finally, increasing REC trading flexibility decreases energy prices in some states and increases them elsewhere, while the WECC-wide average energy price decreases.
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Reus, L., Munoz, F. D., & Moreno, R. (2018). Retail consumers and risk in centralized energy auctions for indexed long-term contracts in Chile. Energy Policy, 114, 566–577.
Abstract: Centralized energy auctions for long-term contracts are commonly-used mechanisms to ensure supply adequacy, to promote competition, and to protect retail customers from price spikes in Latin America. In Chile, the law mandates that all distribution companies must hold long-term contracts – which are awarded on a competitive centralized auction – to cover 100% of the projected demand from three to fifteen years into the future. These contracts can be indexed to a series of financial parameters, including fossil fuel prices at reference locations. Drawing from portfolio theory, we use a simple example to illustrate the difficulties of selecting, through the current clearing mechanism that focuses on average costs and individual characteristics of the offers, a portfolio of long-term energy contracts that could simultaneously minimize the expected future cost of energy and limit the risk exposure of retail customers. In particular, we show that if the objective of the regulator is to limit the risk to regulated consumers, it could be optimal to include contracts that would not be selected based on individual characteristics of the offers and a least-cost auction objective, but that could significantly reduce the price variance of the overall portfolio due to diversification effects between indexing parameters.
Keywords: Price risk; Energy auctions; Portfolio optimization
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Silva, C., & Nasirov, S. (2017). Chile: Paving the way for sustainable energy planning. Energy Sources Part B, 12(1), 56–62.
Abstract: Over the last 20 years, economy of Chile grew faster than any other country in South America, thanks to its rigorous economic and political systems and its integration to the global economy. Nonetheless, Chile faces the continuing challenge of finding additional energy supplies to support its economic growth. The country has almost no fossil fuel resources and depends heavily on external sources that accounts for around 60% of its energy needs. However, this may change in the near future, as Chile has started developing its huge potential of sustainable energy sources. This paper examines strategically important energy alternatives for Chile, including energy efficiency (EE) programs, large hydro projects, renewable energy, and nuclear power, focusing on recent developments and remaining challenges. It also gives some recommendations providing alternatives to remove the obstacles.
Keywords: Chile; energy efficiency; energy sources; hydro and renewables
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Simon, F., Girard, A., Krotki, M., & Ordonez, J. (2021). Modelling and simulation of the wood biomass supply from the sustainable management of natural forests. J. Clean. Prod., 282, 124487.
Abstract: Wood biomass is an important energy resource, which can contribute to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. The research undertakes the microeconomic approach to estimate the technical availability and operational costs of woody biomass production with a higher level of precision than other models present in the literature, as it considers the entire supply chain of the sustainable management of natural forests. This study introduces a tool, which is applied to estimate supply curves and costs of wood biomass extraction from natural forests in the 7th Region of Chile. The simulation indicates that 531,015 tons/year of wood biomass is available in natural forests of the Region under study, with extraction costs ranging from 24.51 to 56.68 US$/ton, or an average total cost of 40.97 US$/ton. The parametric analysis revealed that the maximum admissible distance to the nearest transport route and the transportation costs are the two most influential variables in the estimation of wood biomass supply and cost. Reducing the admissible distance from 5 km to 1 km reduced the availability of biomass by 80%, while a variation of +/- 50% of transportation costs translated into +/- 18.3% variation of total extraction costs.
The proposed method can be used to identify the technical-economic potential of wood biomass from natural forests in any commune, province, region, or country; as it has the flexibility to allow tests with multiple scenarios and parameters depending on the specific characteristics of the area to be analysed. Essentially, the purpose of this tool is to serve the assessment processes of the identification of new wood biomass resources, allowing decision makers to increase the potential of sustainable and cost-effective woody biomass for heat and electricity generation, and at the same time reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the dependence on fossil fuels. |
Simon, F., Ordonez, J., Girard, A., & Parrado, C. (2019). Modelling energy use in residential buildings: How design decisions influence final energy performance in various Chilean climates. Indoor Built Environ., 28(4), 533–551.
Abstract: To reduce the energy consumption in buildings, there is a demand for tools that identify significant parameters of energy performance. The work presents the development and validation of a simulation model, called MEEDI, and graphical figures for the parametric sensitivity investigation of energy performance in different climates in Chile. The MEEDI is based on the ISO 13790 monthly calculation method of building energy use with two improved procedures for the calculation of the heat transfer through the floor and the solar heat gains. The graphical figures illustrate the effects of climate conditions, envelope components and window size and orientation on the energy consumption. The MEEDI program can contribute to find the best solution to increase energy efficiency in residential buildings. It can be adapted for various parameters, making it useful for future projects. The economic viability of specific measures for building envelope materials was analysed. Payback periods range from 5 to 27 years depending on the location and energy scenario. The study illustrates how building design decisions can have a significant impact on final energy performance. With simple envelope components modification, valuable energy gains and carbon emission reductions can be achieved in a cost-effective manner in Chile.
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Valencia, L. (2008). New scenario of the non-conventional renewable energies on Chile after the incentives created on the “Short Law I”. Renew. Energy, 33(6), 1429–1434.
Abstract: Non-conventional renewable energies have never played in important role in the Chilean energy generation system, mainly due to the economic barriers that actually exists oil our country for the inclusion of these kinds of technologies. Nevertheless, the use of renewable energy system technologies have started to be an interesting issue for the Chilean government, and for that reason, the last modification of the Energy Law during 2004, usually known as “Short Law I”, introduced the first direct incentive to renewable energy generation (specifically in the art. 71-7). In this work we analyze in detail the modification oil the electric law we mentioned before, especially for geothermal and wind power generation, and we compare the economic incentive generated with the new law and the differences between the real energy costs using renewable energy systems technologies and the current energy price in Chile. It is clear from the analysis that the total incentives do not cover more than 8.3% of the price differences between incomes and costs. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: energy law; energy prices; renewable energies
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Varona, J., De Fazio, R., Velazquez, R., Giannoccaro, N. I., Carrasco, M., & Visconti, P. (2020). MEMS-based Micro-scale Wind Turbines as Energy Harvesters of the Convective Airflows in Microelectronic Circuits. Int. J. Renew. Energy. Res., 10(3), 1213–1225.
Abstract: As an alternative to conventional batteries and other energy scavenging techniques, this paper introduces the idea of using micro-turbines to extract energy from wind forces at the microscale level and to supply power to battery-less microsystems. Fundamental research efforts on the design, fabrication, and test of micro-turbines with blade lengths of just 160 μm are presented in this paper along with analytical models and preliminary experimental results. The proof-of-concept prototypes presented herein were fabricated using a standard polysilicon surface micro-machining silicon technology (PolyMUMPs) and could effectively transform the kinetic energy of the available wind into a torque that might drive an electric generator or directly power supply a micro-mechanical system. Since conventional batteries do not scale-down well to the microscale, wind micro-turbines have the potential for becoming a practical alternative power source for microsystems, as well as for extending the operating range of devices running on batteries.
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Vasco, D. A., Munoz-Mejias, M., Pino-Sepulveda, R., Ortega-Aguilera, R., & Garcia-Herrera, C. (2017). Thermal simulation of a social dwelling in Chile: Effect of the thermal zone and the temperature-dependant thermophysical properties of light envelope materials. Appl. Therm. Eng., 112, 771–783.
Abstract: As in most countries, Chile exhibits a continuous growth of energy demand, although nowadays the country does not have enough conventional energy sources to supply it. For this reason, energy saving approaches in the residential sector have been encouraged. One of the solutions to improve the energy performance of the buildings is to decrease wasting energy through the building's envelope, therefore the thermal properties of materials used in building envelopes must be analyzed to evaluate the thermal response of houses. Normally, the thermal envelope of a social house in Chile is made of brick or wood along with light materials such as fiber cement, plasterboard, and thermal insulating materials as polystyrene foam. The experimental part of this work deals with the measurement of the thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity of the aforementioned light materials in a temperature range from -5 degrees C to 40 degrees C through the transient line heat source method. The experimental results allowed the identification of 10-20% variation of those thermophysical properties. The response of the thermal envelope and the inner temperature of a social dwelling under seven different climatological conditions was evaluated through transient simulations with EnergyPlus. The results allowed to identify that the dwellings located in hotter zones are prone to having higher temperatures than the comfort temperature, and the recommendations of the thermal regulations in Chile are more effective in the colder thermal zones 6 and 7. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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