Ding, C., Dang, C., Valdebenito, M. A., Faes, M. G. R., Broggi, M., & Beer, M. (2023). First-passage probability estimation of high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems by a fractional moments-based mixture distribution approach. Mech. Syst. Sig. Process., 185, 109775.
Abstract: First-passage probability estimation of high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems is a significant task to be solved in many science and engineering fields, but remains still an open challenge. The present paper develops a novel approach, termed 'fractional moments-based mixture distribution', to address such challenge. This approach is implemented by capturing the extreme value distribution (EVD) of the system response with the concepts of fractional moment and mixture distribution. In our context, the fractional moment itself is by definition a high-dimensional integral with a complicated integrand. To efficiently compute the fractional moments, a parallel adaptive sampling scheme that allows for sample size extension is developed using the refined Latinized stratified sampling (RLSS). In this manner, both variance reduction and parallel computing are possible for evaluating the fractional moments. From the knowledge of low-order fractional moments, the EVD of interest is then expected to be reconstructed. Based on introducing an extended inverse Gaussian distribution and a log extended skew-normal distribution, one flexible mixture distribution model is proposed, where its fractional moments are derived in analytic form. By fitting a set of fractional moments, the EVD can be recovered via the proposed mixture model. Accordingly, the first-passage probabilities under different thresholds can be obtained from the recovered EVD straightforwardly. The performance of the proposed method is verified by three examples consisting of two test examples and one engineering problem.
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Leiva, V., Santos-Neto, M., Cysneiros, F. J. A., & Barros, M. (2016). A methodology for stochastic inventory models based on a zero-adjusted Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Appl. Stoch. Models. Bus. Ind., 32(1), 74–89.
Abstract: The Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution is receiving considerable attention. We propose a methodology for inventory logistics that allows demand data with zeros to be modeled by means of a new discrete-continuous mixture distribution, which is constructed by using a probability mass at zero and a continuous component related to the BS distribution. We obtain some properties of the new mixture distribution and conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the estimators of its parameters. The methodology for stochastic inventory models considers also financial indicators. We illustrate the proposed methodology with two real-world demand data sets. It shows its potential, highlighting the convenience of using it by improving the contribution margins of a Chilean food industry. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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