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Ocampo-Melgar, A., Barria, P., Chadwick, C., & Riyas, C. (2022). Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26(19), 5103–5118.
Abstract: Hydrological modeling tools can support collaborative decision processes by visually displaying hydrological systems connections, uncertainties, as well as conflicting preferences over water management strategies. Nevertheless, many challenges remain in the real application of these technical tools to successfully implement, capture, and communicate with non-experts the complexities of coupled human hydrological systems. A 5-step process shows how a WEAP-based hydrological study aiming to explore the disappearance of a 12 km(2) lake in the Aculeo basin in Chile was transformed into a multiple question-driven sociohydrological modeling process to help answer the diversity of questions instigating conflict. Collaboration allowed construction of a surface-groundwater hydrological model that responded to local stakeholders' uncertainties. While testing a subset of socially accepted management strategies under two climate change scenarios, combining the strategies allows recovering up to half the lake water volume. However, the 5-step participatory modeling process also shows how the increasing social-environmental conflicts over the causes and effects of the water scarcity are challenging barriers to overcome with modeling tools. As presented in this article, although flexible approaches and research agendas could better support the exploration of synergies towards collaboration and production of useful and socially acceptable hydrological models, there are still value-driven aspects of water management that need to be explored to better support science policy dialogues.
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Tapia, T., Lorca, A., Olivares, D., Negrete-Pincetic, M., & Lamadrid, A. J. (2021). A robust decision-support method based on optimization and simulation for wildfire resilience in highly renewable power systems. Eur. J. Oper. Res., 294(2), 723–733.
Abstract: Wildfires can pose a major threat to the secure operation of power networks. Chile, California, and Australia have suffered from recent wildfires that have induced considerable power supply cuts. Further, as power systems move to a significant integration of variable renewable energy sources, successfully managing the impact of wildfires on the power supply can become even more challenging due to the joint uncertainty in wildfire trajectories and the power injections from wind and solar farms. Motivated by this, this paper develops a practical decision-support approach that concatenates a stochastic wildfire simulation method with an attacker-defender model that aims to find a worst-case realization for (i) transmission line and generator contingencies, out of those that can potentially be affected by a given wildfire scenario, and for (ii) wind and solar power trajectories, based on a max-min structure where the inner min problem represents a best adaptive response on generator dispatch actions. Further, this paper proposes an evaluation framework to assess the power supply security of various power system topology configurations, under the assumption of limited transmission switching capabilities, and based on the simulation of several wildfire evolution scenarios. Extensive computational experiments are carried out on two representations of the Chilean power network with up to 278 buses, showing the practical effectiveness of the proposed approach for enhancing wildfire resilience in highly renewable power systems.
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