Abstract: Most time-series models assume that the data come from observations that are equally spaced in time. However, this assumption does not hold in many diverse scientific fields, such as astronomy, finance, and climatology, among others. There are some techniques that fit unequally spaced time series, such as the continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes. These models are defined as the solution of a stochastic differential equation. It is not uncommon in astronomical time series, that the time gaps between observations are large. Therefore, an alternative suitable approach to modeling astronomical time series with large gaps between observations should be based on the solution of a difference equation of a discrete process. In this work we propose a novel model to fit irregular time series called the complex irregular autoregressive (CIAR) model that is represented directly as a discrete-time process. We show that the model is weakly stationary and that it can be represented as a state-space system, allowing efficient maximum likelihood estimation based on the Kalman recursions. Furthermore, we show via Monte Carlo simulations that the finite sample performance of the parameter estimation is accurate. The proposed methodology is applied to light curves from periodic variable stars, illustrating how the model can be implemented to detect poor adjustment of the harmonic model. This can occur when the period has not been accurately estimated or when the variable stars are multiperiodic. Last, we show how the CIAR model, through its state space representation, allows unobserved measurements to be forecast.

Abstract: Context. The transiting exoplanetary system WASP-174 was reported to be composed by a main-sequence F star (V = 11.8 mag) and a giant planet, WASP-174b (orbital period P-orb = 4.23 days). However only an upper limit was placed on the planet mass (<1.3 M-Jup), and a highly uncertain planetary radius (0.7-1.7 R-Jup) was determined.Aims. We aim to better characterise both the star and the planet and precisely measure their orbital and physical parameters.Methods. In order to constrain the mass of the planet, we obtained new measurements of the radial velocity of the star and joined them with those from the discovery paper. Photometric data from the HATSouth survey and new multi-band, high-quality (precision reached up to 0.37 mmag) photometric follow-up observations of transit events were acquired and analysed for getting accurate photometric parameters. We fit the model to all the observations, including data from the TESS space telescope, in two different modes: incorporating the stellar isochrones into the fit, and using an empirical method to get the stellar parameters. The two modes resulted to be consistent with each other to within 2<sigma>.Results. We confirm the grazing nature of the WASP-174b transits with a confidence level greater than 5 sigma, which is also corroborated by simultaneously observing the transit through four optical bands and noting how the transit depth changes due to the limb-darkening effect. We estimate that approximate to 76% of the disk of the planet actually eclipses the parent star at mid-transit of its transit events. We find that WASP-174b is a highly-inflated hot giant planet with a mass of M-p = 0.330 +/- 0.091 M-Jup and a radius of R-p = 1.435 +/- 0.050 R-Jup, and is therefore a good target for transmission-spectroscopy observations. With a density of rho (p) = 0.135 +/- 0.042 g cm(-3), it is amongst the lowest-density planets ever discovered with precisely measured mass and radius.

Abstract: When a planet is only observed to transit once, direct measurement of its period is impossible. It is possible, however, to constrain the periods of single transiters, and this is desirable as they are likely to represent the cold and far extremes of the planet population observed by any particular survey. Improving the accuracy with which the period of single transiters can be constrained is therefore critical to enhance the long-period planet yield of surveys. Here, we combine Gaia parallaxes with stellar models and broad-band photometry to estimate the stellar densities of K2 planet host stars, then use that stellar density information to model individual planet transits and infer the posterior period distribution. We show that the densities we infer are reliable by comparing with densities derived through asteroseismology, and apply our method to 27 validation planets of known (directly measured) period, treating each transit as if it were the only one, as well as to 12 true single transiters. When we treat eccentricity as a free parameter, we achieve a fractional period uncertainty over the true single transits of 94(-58)(+87) per cent, and when we fix e = 0, we achieve fractional period uncertainty 15(-6)(+30) per cent, a roughly threefold improvement over typical period uncertainties of previous studies.

Abstract: Context. Long-period transiting planets provide the opportunity to better understand the formation and evolution of planetary systems. Their atmospheric properties remain largely unaltered by tidal or radiative effects of the host star, and their orbital arrangement reflects a different and less extreme migrational history compared to close-in objects. The sample of long-period exoplanets with well-determined masses and radii is still limited, but a growing number of long-period objects reveal themselves in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data.
Aims. Our goal is to vet and confirm single-transit planet candidates detected in the TESS space-based photometric data through spectroscopic and photometric follow-up observations with ground-based instruments.
Methods. We used high-resolution spectrographs to confirm the planetary nature of the transiting candidates and measure their masses. We also used the Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS) to photometrically monitor the candidates in order to observe additional transits. Using a joint modeling of the light curves and radial velocities, we computed the orbital parameters of the system and were able to precisely measure the mass and radius of the transiting planets.
Results. We report the discovery of two massive, warm Jupiter-size planets, one orbiting the F8-type star TOI-5153 and the other orbiting the G1-type star NGTS-20 (=TOI-5152). From our spectroscopic analysis, both stars are metal rich with a metallicity of 0.12 and 0.15, respectively. Only TOI-5153 presents a second transit in the TESS extended mission data, but NGTS observed NGTS-20 as part of its mono-transit follow-up program and detected two additional transits. Follow-up high-resolution spectroscopic observations were carried out with CORALIE, CHIRON, FEROS, and HARPS. TOI-5153 hosts a planet with a period of 20.33 days, a planetary mass of 3.26(-0.17)(+0.18) Jupiter masses (M-j), a radius of 1.06(-0.04)(+0.04)R(J), and an orbital eccentricity of 0.091(-0.02)(6)(+0.024). NGTS-20 b is a 2.98(-)(0.)(15)(+0.16) M-J planet with a radius of 1.07(-0.0)(4)(+0.04) R-J on an eccentric (0.432(-0.023)(+0.023)) orbit with an orbital period of 54.19 days. Both planets are metal enriched and their heavy element content is in line with the previously reported mass-metallicity relation for gas giants.
Conclusions. Both warm Jupiters orbit moderately bright host stars, making these objects valuable targets for follow-up studies of the planetary atmosphere and measurement of the spin-orbit angle of the system.