
Elorrieta, F., Eyheramendy, S., & Palma, W. (2019). Discretetime autoregressive model for unequally spaced timeseries observations. Astron. Astrophys., 627, 11 pp.
Abstract: Most timeseries models assume that the data come from observations that are equally spaced in time. However, this assumption does not hold in many diverse scientific fields, such as astronomy, finance, and climatology, among others. There are some techniques that fit unequally spaced time series, such as the continuoustime autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes. These models are defined as the solution of a stochastic differential equation. It is not uncommon in astronomical time series, that the time gaps between observations are large. Therefore, an alternative suitable approach to modeling astronomical time series with large gaps between observations should be based on the solution of a difference equation of a discrete process. In this work we propose a novel model to fit irregular time series called the complex irregular autoregressive (CIAR) model that is represented directly as a discretetime process. We show that the model is weakly stationary and that it can be represented as a statespace system, allowing efficient maximum likelihood estimation based on the Kalman recursions. Furthermore, we show via Monte Carlo simulations that the finite sample performance of the parameter estimation is accurate. The proposed methodology is applied to light curves from periodic variable stars, illustrating how the model can be implemented to detect poor adjustment of the harmonic model. This can occur when the period has not been accurately estimated or when the variable stars are multiperiodic. Last, we show how the CIAR model, through its state space representation, allows unobserved measurements to be forecast.



Mancini, L., Sarkis, P., Henning, T., Bakos, G. A., Bayliss, D., Bento, J., et al. (2020). The highly inflated giant planet WASP174b. Astron. Astrophys., 633, 12 pp.
Abstract: Context. The transiting exoplanetary system WASP174 was reported to be composed by a mainsequence F star (V = 11.8 mag) and a giant planet, WASP174b (orbital period Porb = 4.23 days). However only an upper limit was placed on the planet mass (<1.3 MJup), and a highly uncertain planetary radius (0.71.7 RJup) was determined.Aims. We aim to better characterise both the star and the planet and precisely measure their orbital and physical parameters.Methods. In order to constrain the mass of the planet, we obtained new measurements of the radial velocity of the star and joined them with those from the discovery paper. Photometric data from the HATSouth survey and new multiband, highquality (precision reached up to 0.37 mmag) photometric followup observations of transit events were acquired and analysed for getting accurate photometric parameters. We fit the model to all the observations, including data from the TESS space telescope, in two different modes: incorporating the stellar isochrones into the fit, and using an empirical method to get the stellar parameters. The two modes resulted to be consistent with each other to within 2<sigma>.Results. We confirm the grazing nature of the WASP174b transits with a confidence level greater than 5 sigma, which is also corroborated by simultaneously observing the transit through four optical bands and noting how the transit depth changes due to the limbdarkening effect. We estimate that approximate to 76% of the disk of the planet actually eclipses the parent star at midtransit of its transit events. We find that WASP174b is a highlyinflated hot giant planet with a mass of Mp = 0.330 +/ 0.091 MJup and a radius of Rp = 1.435 +/ 0.050 RJup, and is therefore a good target for transmissionspectroscopy observations. With a density of rho (p) = 0.135 +/ 0.042 g cm(3), it is amongst the lowestdensity planets ever discovered with precisely measured mass and radius.



Sandford, E., Espinoza, N., Brahm, R., & Jordan, A. (2019). Estimation of singly transiting K2 planet periods with Gaia parallaxes. Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc., 489(3), 3149–3161.
Abstract: When a planet is only observed to transit once, direct measurement of its period is impossible. It is possible, however, to constrain the periods of single transiters, and this is desirable as they are likely to represent the cold and far extremes of the planet population observed by any particular survey. Improving the accuracy with which the period of single transiters can be constrained is therefore critical to enhance the longperiod planet yield of surveys. Here, we combine Gaia parallaxes with stellar models and broadband photometry to estimate the stellar densities of K2 planet host stars, then use that stellar density information to model individual planet transits and infer the posterior period distribution. We show that the densities we infer are reliable by comparing with densities derived through asteroseismology, and apply our method to 27 validation planets of known (directly measured) period, treating each transit as if it were the only one, as well as to 12 true single transiters. When we treat eccentricity as a free parameter, we achieve a fractional period uncertainty over the true single transits of 94(58)(+87) per cent, and when we fix e = 0, we achieve fractional period uncertainty 15(6)(+30) per cent, a roughly threefold improvement over typical period uncertainties of previous studies.

