
Elorrieta, F., Eyheramendy, S., & Palma, W. (2019). Discretetime autoregressive model for unequally spaced timeseries observations. Astron. Astrophys., 627, 11 pp.
Abstract: Most timeseries models assume that the data come from observations that are equally spaced in time. However, this assumption does not hold in many diverse scientific fields, such as astronomy, finance, and climatology, among others. There are some techniques that fit unequally spaced time series, such as the continuoustime autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes. These models are defined as the solution of a stochastic differential equation. It is not uncommon in astronomical time series, that the time gaps between observations are large. Therefore, an alternative suitable approach to modeling astronomical time series with large gaps between observations should be based on the solution of a difference equation of a discrete process. In this work we propose a novel model to fit irregular time series called the complex irregular autoregressive (CIAR) model that is represented directly as a discretetime process. We show that the model is weakly stationary and that it can be represented as a statespace system, allowing efficient maximum likelihood estimation based on the Kalman recursions. Furthermore, we show via Monte Carlo simulations that the finite sample performance of the parameter estimation is accurate. The proposed methodology is applied to light curves from periodic variable stars, illustrating how the model can be implemented to detect poor adjustment of the harmonic model. This can occur when the period has not been accurately estimated or when the variable stars are multiperiodic. Last, we show how the CIAR model, through its state space representation, allows unobserved measurements to be forecast.



Lagos, F., Schreiber, M. R., Parsons, S. G., Zurlo, A., Mesa, D., Gansicke, B. T., et al. (2020). The White Dwarf Binary Pathways Survey III. Contamination from hierarchical triples containing a white dwarf. Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc., 494(1), 915–922.
Abstract: The White Dwarf Binary Pathways Survey aims at increasing the number of known detached A, F, G, and K mainsequence stars in close orbits with white dwarf companions (WD+AFGK binaries) to refine our understanding about compact binary evolution and the nature of Supernova Ia progenitors. These close WD+AFGK binary stars are expected to form through common envelope evolution, in which tidal forces tend to circularize the orbit. However, some of the identified WD+AFGK binary candidates show eccentric orbits, indicating that these systems are either formed through a different mechanism or perhaps they are not close WD+AFGK binaries. We observed one of these eccentric WD+AFGK binaries with SPHERE and find that the system TYC 72189341 is in fact a triple system where the WD is a distant companion. The inner binary likely consists of the Gtype star plus an unseen lowmass companion in an eccentric orbit. Based on this finding, we estimate the fraction of triple systems that could contaminate the WD+AFGK sample. We find that less than 15 per cent of our targets with orbital periods shorter than 100 d might be hierarchical triples.



Sandford, E., Espinoza, N., Brahm, R., & Jordan, A. (2019). Estimation of singly transiting K2 planet periods with Gaia parallaxes. Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc., 489(3), 3149–3161.
Abstract: When a planet is only observed to transit once, direct measurement of its period is impossible. It is possible, however, to constrain the periods of single transiters, and this is desirable as they are likely to represent the cold and far extremes of the planet population observed by any particular survey. Improving the accuracy with which the period of single transiters can be constrained is therefore critical to enhance the longperiod planet yield of surveys. Here, we combine Gaia parallaxes with stellar models and broadband photometry to estimate the stellar densities of K2 planet host stars, then use that stellar density information to model individual planet transits and infer the posterior period distribution. We show that the densities we infer are reliable by comparing with densities derived through asteroseismology, and apply our method to 27 validation planets of known (directly measured) period, treating each transit as if it were the only one, as well as to 12 true single transiters. When we treat eccentricity as a free parameter, we achieve a fractional period uncertainty over the true single transits of 94(58)(+87) per cent, and when we fix e = 0, we achieve fractional period uncertainty 15(6)(+30) per cent, a roughly threefold improvement over typical period uncertainties of previous studies.

